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Le Puy-en-Velay vs Caen - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

National 2025/2026 Stade Charles Massot, Espaly-Saint Marcel
Our Tip

Match Events

20'
M'Vila Y.
21' Event
Adelaide M.
Penalty Missed
21' Event
Adelaide M.

AI Match Summary

Le Puy-en-Velay in this National 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Le Puy-en-Velay.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Le Puy-en-Velay
15%
Draws
48%
Caen
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Caen lately — more wins on the board than Le Puy-en-Velay.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular National 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Le Puy-en-Velay Clean Sheet 20%
Caen Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Le Puy-en-Velay Caen
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 12
Draws 9 7
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.2 1.79
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 13, 2026 Ligue 3
Le Puy-en-Velay vs Caen
1:0
Oct 3, 2025 Ligue 3
Caen vs Le Puy-en-Velay
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Le Puy-en-Velay Compare

Top Goalscorer Adelaide M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Caen Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Le Puy-en-Velay 32 / 100
Caen 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Le Puy-en-Velay Caen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Le Puy-en-Velay's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Caen has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Le Puy-en-Velay went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Le Puy-en-Velay VS Caen
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Le Puy-en-Velay

(Home)
03 Oct
Le Puy-en-Velay
1 : 0
Thionville
26 Sept
Valenciennes
2 : 1
Le Puy-en-Velay
19 Sept
Le Puy-en-Velay
4 : 1
Villefranche
12 Sept
Quevilly
2 : 1
Le Puy-en-Velay
05 Sept
Le Puy-en-Velay
1 : 1
Orleans
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Caen

(Away)
03 Oct
Fleury 91
3 : 2
Caen
24 Sept
Caen
3 : 2
Rouen
19 Sept
Concarneau
2 : 0
Caen
12 Sept
Caen
2 : 0
Paris 13 Atletico
05 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 2
Caen
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dijon 32 18 11 3 52:25 65
2 Sochaux 32 16 10 6 51:26 58
3 Rouen 32 14 13 5 43:29 55
4 Fleury 91 32 15 9 8 47:30 54
5 Versailles 32 15 8 9 46:34 53
6 Orleans 32 14 9 9 42:42 51
7 Le Puy-en-Velay 32 12 11 9 45:38 47
8 Caen 32 8 16 8 39:34 40
9 Concarneau 32 8 14 10 32:37 38
10 Valenciennes 32 10 8 14 35:44 37
11 Aubagne FC 32 9 10 13 38:46 37
12 Villefranche 32 10 7 15 34:45 37
13 Quevilly 32 8 9 15 34:45 33
14 Paris 13 Atletico 32 7 11 14 26:41 32
15 Bourg Peronnas 32 8 7 17 25:44 31
16 Chateauroux 32 6 13 13 35:49 30
17 Stade Briochin 32 5 12 15 35:50 27
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)