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Leca vs Aparecida

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Coelho V.
24' Event
Balde F.
(Penalty)
34' Event
Fortunato B.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026 game between Leca and Aparecida finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Leca
20%
Draws
44%
Aparecida
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Aparecida

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Aparecida haven't matched Leca's recent run of results.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Leca taking it.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Leca Clean Sheet 13%
Aparecida Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leca Aparecida
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 16 9
Draws 10 4
Losses 4 14
Goals Scored 1.83 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.1 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Leca vs Aparecida
5:1
Dec 7, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Aparecida vs Leca
3:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leca Compare

Top Goalscorer Vasconcelos G.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Coelho V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Aparecida Compare

Top Goalscorer Eusebio T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leca 40 / 100
Aparecida 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leca Aparecida

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Leca scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Aparecida has conceded goals in 81% of their last 27 outings.

H2H data points to 6.50 goals as a typical output.

Leca has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Leca VS Aparecida
2.25 Goals Scored 2.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 3
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Leca

(Home)
23 Aug
Paredes
1 : 2
Leca
15 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes B
2 : 0
Leca
09 Aug
Leca
1 : 1
Sao Joao de Ver
29 Jul
Leca
0 : 0
Lusitania FC
15 Jul
Santa Clara
4 : 0
Leca
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Aparecida

(Away)
18 Apr
Cinfaes
5 : 2
Aparecida
12 Apr
Aparecida
4 : 1
Florgrade
04 Apr
Leca
5 : 1
Aparecida
22 Mar
Aparecida
3 : 1
SC Vila Real
15 Mar
Rebordosa
3 : 1
Aparecida
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rebordosa 26 17 7 2 41:17 58
2 Leca 26 14 9 3 50:23 51
3 Cinfaes 26 10 10 6 33:21 40
4 Beira Mar 26 10 8 8 30:22 38
5 FC Alpendorada 26 9 11 6 30:22 38
6 Florgrade 26 9 10 7 28:28 37
7 Vila Mea 26 7 13 6 29:28 34
8 Uniao Lamas 26 9 6 11 27:33 33
9 SC Salgueiros 26 7 11 8 20:19 32
10 Anadia 26 7 9 10 27:33 30
11 Aparecida 26 9 4 13 36:51 28
12 GD Resende 26 6 10 10 27:31 28
13 SC Vila Real 26 5 12 9 23:30 27
14 CD Gouveia 26 1 4 21 14:57 7
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)