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Leca vs Castro Daire

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2022/2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2022/2023 game between Leca and Castro Daire finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Leca
20%
Draws
44%
Castro Daire
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Castro Daire

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Leca come out ahead of Castro Daire on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 30%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Leca Clean Sheet 20%
Castro Daire Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leca Castro Daire
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 23 5
Draws 11 8
Losses 4 17
Goals Scored 1.87 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Leca vs Castro Daire
1:0
Mar 26, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Castro Daire vs Leca
0:2
Jan 16, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Castro Daire vs Leca
2:0
Oct 3, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Leca vs Castro Daire
0:1
Jan 19, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Leca vs Castro Daire
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leca 32 / 100
Castro Daire 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leca Castro Daire

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leca found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (38 games).

Castro Daire's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Leca stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Castro Daire's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Leca VS Castro Daire
2.25 Goals Scored 0.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Leca

(Home)
23 Aug
Paredes
1 : 2
Leca
15 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes B
2 : 0
Leca
09 Aug
Leca
1 : 1
Sao Joao de Ver
29 Jul
Leca
0 : 0
Lusitania FC
15 Jul
Santa Clara
4 : 0
Leca
Page 1 of 8

Castro Daire

(Away)
22 Aug
Sousense
0 : 1
Castro Daire
16 Aug
Castro Daire
0 : 2
UD Ovarense
31 Aug
Castro Daire
1 : 2
Anadia
16 Apr
Leca
1 : 0
Castro Daire
08 Apr
Castro Daire
3 : 1
GD Resende
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SC Salgueiros 26 15 7 4 39:25 52
2 Lusitania FC 26 15 7 4 49:23 52
3 Rebordosa 26 14 9 3 42:23 51
4 Beira Mar 26 13 9 4 35:21 48
5 Maritimo B 26 12 7 7 39:26 43
6 Valadares Gaia FC 26 10 10 6 39:29 40
7 Gondomar 26 10 8 8 33:32 38
8 Camacha 26 9 7 10 30:34 34
9 Leca 26 10 3 13 29:29 33
10 Machico 26 7 8 11 31:40 29
11 FC Alpendorada 26 8 5 13 30:43 29
12 Castro Daire 26 4 8 14 23:34 20
13 GD Resende 26 4 5 17 30:50 17
14 Guarda Desportiva 26 2 5 19 21:61 8
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2022/2023 (Promotion Group)