Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lecce vs Genoa

Italy Italy

Serie A 2025/2026 Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Banda L.
Assist: Pierotti S.
45'
Ramadani Y.
46'
Sub
Ngom O. In: Gandelman O.
Out: Ngom O.

AI Match Summary

Lecce in this Serie A 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lecce.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Lecce
15%
Draws
34%
Genoa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lecce

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lecce lately — more wins on the board than Genoa.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Serie A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Lecce Clean Sheet 68%
Genoa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lecce Genoa
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 10
Draws 4 6
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Serie A
Lecce vs Genoa
1:0
Aug 23, 2025 Serie A
Genoa vs Lecce
0:0
Mar 14, 2025 Serie A
Genoa vs Lecce
2:1
Jan 5, 2025 Serie A
Lecce vs Genoa
0:0
Jan 28, 2024 Serie A
Genoa vs Lecce
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lecce Compare

Top Goalscorer Banda L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Genoa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lecce 41 / 100
Genoa 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lecce Genoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lecce Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Genoa let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Away concern: Genoa has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Lecce scored in 52% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 1.40 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Lecce VS Genoa
1.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Lecce

(Home)
13 Sept
Lecce
3 : 2
Monza
07 Sept
Cagliari
1 : 0
Lecce
31 Aug
Lecce
0 : 4
AS Roma
23 Aug
Venezia
0 : 2
Lecce
17 Aug
Palermo
2 : 0
Lecce
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Genoa

(Away)
15 Sept
Genoa
1 : 0
Sudtirol
12 Sept
Genoa
1 : 1
Frosinone
04 Sept
Genoa
1 : 4
Como
30 Aug
Lazio
1 : 0
Genoa
22 Aug
Genoa
0 : 2
Napoli
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter 38 27 6 5 89:35 87
2 Napoli 38 23 7 8 58:36 76
3 AS Roma 38 23 4 11 59:31 73
4 Como 38 20 11 7 65:29 71
5 AC Milan 38 20 10 8 53:35 70
6 Juventus 38 19 12 7 61:34 69
7 Atalanta 38 15 14 9 51:36 59
8 Bologna 38 16 8 14 49:46 56
9 Lazio 38 14 12 12 41:40 54
10 Udinese 38 14 8 16 45:48 50
11 Sassuolo 38 14 7 17 46:50 49
12 Torino 38 12 9 17 44:63 45
13 Parma 38 11 12 15 28:46 45
14 Cagliari 38 11 10 17 40:53 43
15 Fiorentina 38 9 15 14 41:50 42
16 Genoa 38 10 11 17 41:51 41
17 Lecce 38 10 8 20 28:50 38
18 Cremonese 38 8 10 20 32:57 34
19 Verona 38 3 12 23 25:61 21
20 Pisa 38 2 12 24 26:71 18
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B (Main)