Sport Picks
Lech Poznan vs Aarhus
Europe
Champions League Stadion Poznan, Poznań 
Match Events
32'
32'
Bech T.
Assist: Arnstad K.
40'
40'
Kozubal A.
45'
45'
Bogere J.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-5. This leg finished 1-5.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
20%
29%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lech Poznan
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Lech Poznan have won more games recently than Aarhus.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- Lech Poznan have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Aarhus, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Lech Poznan Clean Sheet 20%
Aarhus Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lech Poznan | Aarhus |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 20 | 10 |
| Draws | 6 | 10 |
| Losses | 4 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 2.37 | 1.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.57 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.44 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 29, 2026 Champions League
Lech Poznan vs Aarhus
1:5
Jul 21, 2026 Champions League
Aarhus vs Lech Poznan
1:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lech Poznan Compare
Top Goalscorer Jagiello F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22
Aarhus Compare
Top Goalscorer Bech T.
1 Goals Assists Leader Tingager F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lech Poznan 31 / 100
Aarhus 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lech Poznan Aarhus
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Lech Poznan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Lech Poznan's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Defensive concern: Aarhus conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.
Historical meetings average 5.50 goals per match.
Lech Poznan went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Lech Poznan VS Aarhus
2.63 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Lech Poznan
(Home) 20 Sept
Lech Poznan
5 : 1 Radomiak Radom
17 Sept
Crystal Palace
4 : 0 Lech Poznan
12 Sept
Gornik Zabrze
2 : 1 Lech Poznan
06 Sept
Lech Poznan
1 : 0 Rakow Czestochowa
03 Sept
Lech Poznan
2 : 1 Jagiellonia
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Lech Poznan
5 : 1 Radomiak Radom
06 Sept
Lech Poznan
1 : 0 Rakow Czestochowa
03 Sept
Lech Poznan
2 : 1 Jagiellonia
20 Aug
Lech Poznan
7 : 0 Thun
09 Aug
Lech Poznan
3 : 0 Piast Gliwice
Page 1 of 4
Aarhus
(Away) 20 Sept
Horsens
2 : 2 Aarhus
16 Sept
Skjold
1 : 6 Aarhus
13 Sept
Nordsjaelland
2 : 0 Aarhus
05 Sept
Aarhus
2 : 2 Silkeborg
02 Sept
Aarhus
0 : 2 Midtjylland
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Horsens
2 : 2 Aarhus
16 Sept
Skjold
1 : 6 Aarhus
13 Sept
Nordsjaelland
2 : 0 Aarhus
30 Aug
Randers FC
2 : 1 Aarhus
20 Aug
Benfica
3 : 1 Aarhus
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/8-finals
Borac Banja Luka 1
Levski Sofia 5
ML Vitebsk 1
Univ. Craiova 5
Omonia -
TBD -
Kairat Almaty 4
Sutjeska 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
AEK -
Celtic -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
LASK Linz -
Thun -
TBD -
TBD -
Din. Zagreb -
Klaksvik 4
Bissen 2
FK Kauno Zalgiris 4
Drita 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Viking -
Mjallby -
TBD -
Lincoln Red Imps 4
Inter Escaldes 2
Flora 4
Iberia 1999 5
TBD -
Slovan Bratislava -
Ararat-Armenia 4
Riga FC 3
Floriana 3
Shamrock Rovers 5
Petrocub Hincesti 2
KF Egnatia 7
TBD -
Celje -
Vikingur Reykjavik 3
Gyor 2
TBD -
H. Beer Sheva -
Tre Fiori 1
Larne 3
TBD -
Crvena zvezda -
Aarhus -
TBD -
TBD -
Lech Poznan -
Sabah Baku 4
TNS 1
Vardar 3
KuPS 4
Fenerbahce -
TBD -
TBD -
Gornik Zabrze -
Sturm Graz -
TBD -
TBD -
Hearts -
Sparta Prague -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Lyon -
Olympiacos Piraeus -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nijmegen -
Royale Union SG -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt -
Quarter-finals
Levski Sofia 3
Univ. Craiova 2
Omonia 1
Kairat Almaty 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
AEK -
Celtic -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
LASK Linz -
Thun 3
Din. Zagreb 4
Klaksvik 0
FK Kauno Zalgiris 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Viking -
Mjallby 3
Lincoln Red Imps 0
Iberia 1999 1
Slovan Bratislava 3
Ararat-Armenia 3
Shamrock Rovers 2
KF Egnatia 5
Celje 6
Vikingur Reykjavik 2
H. Beer Sheva 3
Larne 0
Crvena zvezda 9
Aarhus 6
Lech Poznan 5
Sabah Baku 3
KuPS 0
Fenerbahce 2
Gornik Zabrze 1
Sturm Graz 6
Hearts 0
Sparta Prague -
TBD -
TBD -
Lyon -
Olympiacos Piraeus -
TBD -
TBD -
Nijmegen -
Royale Union SG -
TBD -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt -
Semi-finals
Levski Sofia 2
Kairat Almaty 0
TBD -
AEK -
Celtic -
TBD -
TBD -
LASK Linz -
Din. Zagreb 7
FK Kauno Zalgiris 1
TBD -
Viking -
Mjallby 1
Slovan Bratislava 4
Ararat-Armenia 2
Celje 3
H. Beer Sheva 3
Crvena zvezda 0
Aarhus 2
Sabah Baku 5
Fenerbahce 3
Sturm Graz 0
Sparta Prague 2
Lyon 4
Olympiacos Piraeus 1
Nijmegen 2
Royale Union SG 5
Bodo/Glimt 6
Final
Levski Sofia 0
AEK 4
Celtic 4
LASK Linz 5
Din. Zagreb 3
Viking 5
Slovan Bratislava 3
Celje 2
H. Beer Sheva 4
Sabah Baku 6
Fenerbahce 3
Lyon 2
Nijmegen 1
Bodo/Glimt 6
