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Leeds vs Manchester City

England England

Premier League 2025/2026 Elland Road
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Semenyo A.
Assist: Ait-Nouri R.
65'
Sub
Aaronson B. In: Nmecha L.
Out: Aaronson B.
68'
Sub
Marmoush O. In: Savinho
Out: Marmoush O.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Leeds and Manchester City finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Manchester City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Leeds
22%
Draws
60%
Manchester City
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Manchester City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Manchester City has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Leeds.
  • Model forecasts a 60% win probability edge for Manchester City.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Premier League 2025/2026 provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Leeds Clean Sheet 11%
Manchester City Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leeds Manchester City
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 20
Draws 12 5
Losses 6 5
Goals Scored 1.88 2.63
Goals Conceded 1 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Premier League
Leeds vs Manchester City
0:1
Nov 29, 2025 Premier League
Manchester City vs Leeds
3:2
May 6, 2023 Premier League
Manchester City vs Leeds
2:1
Dec 28, 2022 Premier League
Leeds vs Manchester City
1:3
Apr 30, 2022 Premier League
Leeds vs Manchester City
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leeds Compare

Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Manchester City Compare

Top Goalscorer Semenyo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.39
Avg xA / game 1.46

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leeds 18 / 100
Manchester City 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leeds Manchester City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MCI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leeds scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Manchester City let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Leeds went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Manchester City lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Leeds VS Manchester City
1.88 Goals Scored 2.63
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Arsenal38267571:2785
2Manchester City38239677:3578
3Manchester United382011769:5071
4Aston Villa381981156:4965
5Liverpool381791263:5360
6Bournemouth381318758:5457
7Sunderland3814121242:4854
8Brighton3814111352:4653
9Brentford3814111355:5253
10Chelsea3814101458:5252
11Fulham381571647:5152
12Newcastle Utd381471753:5549
13Everton3813101547:5049
14Leeds3811141349:5647
15Crystal Palace3811121541:5145
16Nottingham3811111648:5144
17Tottenham3810111748:5741
18West Ham381091946:6539
19Burnley384102438:7522
20Wolves383112427:6820