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Leek Town vs Whitby

England England

NPL Premier Division 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Hawkins L.
53' Event
Weir L.
69' Event
Potts L.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 game between Leek Town and Whitby finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leek Town.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Leek Town
15%
Draws
21%
Whitby
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leek Town

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Leek Town come out ahead of Whitby on wins alone.
  • Leek Town are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 83%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Leek Town Clean Sheet 12%
Whitby Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leek Town Whitby
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 6
Draws 8 7
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 1.52 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.21 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 3.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Leek Town vs Whitby
1:2
Apr 18, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Leek Town vs Whitby
3:2
Nov 22, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Whitby vs Leek Town
0:3
Feb 15, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Leek Town vs Whitby
1:2
Oct 19, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Whitby vs Leek Town
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leek Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Weir L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Potts L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.31
Avg xA / game 1.5

Whitby Compare

Top Goalscorer Hawkins L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Harrison J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leek Town 74 / 100
Whitby 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leek Town Whitby

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leek Town Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leek Town found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Whitby conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Leek Town remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Leek Town VS Whitby
2.38 Goals Scored 1.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 3.63
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Leek Town

(Home)
26 Sept
Worcester
0 : 2
Leek Town
22 Sept
Leek Town
2 : 1
Hyde
19 Sept
Bromsgrove
2 : 1
Leek Town
12 Sept
Redcar Athletic
3 : 2
Leek Town
05 Sept
Sporting Khalsa
0 : 5
Leek Town
Page 1 of 6

Whitby

(Away)
29 Sept
Whitby
1 : 2
Lancaster
26 Sept
Bridlington Town
3 : 0
Whitby
12 Sept
Hyde
1 : 3
Whitby
05 Sept
Whitby
2 : 5
Ashton United
31 Aug
Whitby
1 : 4
Alfreton
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hebburn Town 40 23 10 7 75:41 79
2 Hednesford 40 22 11 7 62:35 77
3 United of Manchester 40 21 9 10 65:41 72
4 Warrington Rylands 40 18 13 9 59:42 67
5 Stockton 40 18 12 10 62:50 63
6 Lancaster 40 17 11 12 56:45 62
7 Gainsborough 40 16 11 13 50:45 59
8 Leek Town 40 17 7 16 50:52 58
9 Cleethorpes 40 14 13 13 56:47 55
10 Ashton United 40 14 11 15 47:54 53
11 Ilkeston 40 15 7 18 52:54 52
12 Bamber Bridge 40 14 8 18 52:52 50
13 Guiseley 40 13 9 18 46:56 48
14 Warrington Town 40 12 12 16 43:63 48
15 Hyde 40 11 14 15 58:63 47
16 Rushall 40 12 11 17 48:61 47
17 Whitby 40 10 13 17 43:55 43
18 Workington 40 10 13 17 43:58 43
19 Prescot Cables 40 9 15 16 40:50 42
20 Morpeth 40 12 6 22 38:54 42
21 Stocksbridge 40 8 12 20 38:65 36
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 (Play Offs)