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Legiao vs Samambaia

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Alex
Own Goal
64' Event
Victor Xavier
76' Event
Victor Xavier

AI Match Summary

The Brasiliense 2025 game between Legiao and Samambaia finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Samambaia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Legiao
30%
Draws
47%
Samambaia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Samambaia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Samambaia come out ahead of Legiao on wins alone.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Samambaia taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Legiao Clean Sheet 25%
Samambaia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Legiao Samambaia
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 6 11
Draws 8 6
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1.1 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.48 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.78 0.85
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 2, 2025 Brasiliense
Legiao vs Samambaia
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Legiao Compare

Avg xG / game 0.6
Avg xA / game 0.39

Samambaia Compare

Top Goalscorer Victor Xavier
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.47

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Legiao 10 / 100
Samambaia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Legiao Samambaia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Samambaia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Legiao's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Samambaia conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Legiao stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Legiao VS Samambaia
0.67 Goals Scored 0.88
0.83 Goals Conceded 0.88
67% Over 1.5 50%
17% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Legiao

(Home)
19 Sept
Candango
0 : 2
Legiao
12 Sept
Legiao
0 : 0
Luziania
29 Aug
Canaa EC
1 : 1
Legiao
08 Mar
Real Brasilia
2 : 1
Legiao
23 Feb
Sobradinho
2 : 0
Legiao
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Samambaia

(Away)
15 Mar
Samambaia
0 : 1
Sobradinho
08 Mar
Sobradinho
0 : 0
Samambaia
28 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 6
Samambaia
22 Feb
Samambaia
3 : 0
Sobradinho
12 Feb
ARUC
0 : 3
Samambaia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brasiliense 9 7 1 1 15:4 22
2 Capital 9 6 2 1 17:5 20
3 Ceilandia 9 6 1 2 12:8 19
4 Gama 9 5 2 2 7:4 17
5 Paranoa 9 5 0 4 13:11 15
6 Sobradinho 9 3 3 3 9:6 12
7 Samambaia 9 3 2 4 9:8 11
8 Real Brasilia 9 1 2 6 6:15 5
9 Ceilandense 9 1 2 6 8:18 5
10 Legiao 9 0 1 8 3:20 1
Promotion - Brasiliense 2025 (Play Offs)