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Leicester vs Burton - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

League One King Power Stadium, Leicester
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Dennis M.
Assist: Lofthouse K.
17'
Tilt C.
25' Event
Chauke K.

AI Match Summary

The League One game between Leicester and Burton finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Burton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Leicester
20%
Draws
40%
Burton
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Leicester carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Leicester's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Leicester Clean Sheet 68%
Burton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leicester Burton
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 10 11
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.41 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 League One
Leicester vs Burton
1:2
Jul 18, 2026 Club Friendly
Burton vs Leicester
0:3
Aug 9, 2023 EFL Cup
Burton vs Leicester
0:2
Jul 24, 2021 Club Friendly
Burton vs Leicester
1:0
Oct 29, 2019 EFL Cup
Burton vs Leicester
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leicester Compare

Top Goalscorer Burns W.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Burton Compare

Top Goalscorer Dennis M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Chauke K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leicester 50 / 100
Burton 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leicester Burton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leicester Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 7:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leicester found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Burton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Leicester remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Leicester VS Burton
1.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Leicester

(Home)
06 Oct
Stevenage
2 : 1
Leicester
22 Sept
Leicester
6 : 1
Fulham U21
19 Sept
Barnsley
1 : 1
Leicester
12 Sept
Stockport County
3 : 4
Leicester
05 Sept
Leicester
0 : 4
Oxford Utd
Page 1 of 6

Burton

(Away)
06 Oct
Grimsby
0 : 1
Burton
03 Oct
Burton
1 : 3
Huddersfield
26 Sept
Plymouth
0 : 1
Burton
22 Sept
Burton
1 : 2
Nottingham U21
19 Sept
Burton
2 : 2
Mansfield
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Plymouth 9 5 1 3 16:11 16
2 Bradford City 8 5 1 2 8:5 16
3 Huddersfield 8 4 3 1 14:7 15
4 Sheffield Wed 7 4 2 1 13:6 14
5 Stockport County 8 4 1 3 17:10 13
6 Cambridge Utd 8 3 4 1 13:11 13
7 Reading 8 3 3 2 17:10 12
8 Burton 9 3 3 3 14:15 12
9 AFC Wimbledon 8 3 3 2 6:8 12
10 Oxford Utd 6 3 2 1 13:7 11
11 Leyton Orient 8 3 1 4 13:11 10
12 Wycombe 8 2 4 2 13:16 10
13 Stevenage 7 2 3 2 11:8 9
14 Leicester 7 2 3 2 9:11 9
15 Blackpool 7 2 2 3 13:13 8
16 Luton 7 2 2 3 12:14 8
17 Mansfield 7 2 2 3 10:13 8
18 Barnsley 7 2 2 3 7:12 8
19 Bromley 7 2 2 3 8:18 8
20 Notts County 7 1 4 2 7:9 7
21 Doncaster 7 1 3 3 8:9 6
22 Milton Keynes Dons 7 0 6 1 8:10 6
23 Peterborough 8 1 2 5 4:13 5
24 Wigan 7 1 1 5 5:12 4
Promotion - Championship 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two 2027/2028 (Main)