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Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Portugalete

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This Tercera RFEF - Group 4 encounter between Leioa and Portugalete promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Leioa averages 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded in recent matches. Portugalete shows a form average of 1.8 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 2 wins for Leioa, 1 wins for Portugalete, and 2 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 25.04.26 ended in a 1:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.54 for Leioa and 1.42 for Portugalete, suggesting the primary value lies in the Portugalete double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%

Leioa

24%

Draws

39%

Portugalete

Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Portugalete

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Leioa picked up more points recently compared to Portugalete.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.54 vs 1.42 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 66%

Over 2.5 Goals 51%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%

Leioa Clean Sheet 17%

Portugalete Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 59%

Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Leioa	Portugalete
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	17	20
Draws	5	5
Losses	8	5
Goals Scored	1.33	1.83
Goals Conceded	1.03	0.87
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.71
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	1.71
Possession %	N/A	N/A
Shots per Match	N/A	N/A
Shots on Target	N/A	N/A
Corners per Match	N/A	N/A
Yellow/Red Cards	N/A	N/A

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

25.04.26 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Leioa vs Portugalete

Possession: 43% - 47% Cards: 4 - 0

1:1

20.12.25 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Portugalete vs Leioa

Possession: 51% - 57% Cards: 1 - 2

0:1

18.01.25 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Leioa vs Portugalete

Possession: 54% - 50% Cards: 3 - 2

2:3

08.09.24 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Portugalete vs Leioa

Possession: 56% - 56% Cards: 3 - 0

0:0

01.05.24 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Leioa vs Portugalete

Possession: 47% - 47% Cards: 2 - 3

2:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Leioa

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Sit deep

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Portugalete

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)

Attacking Style Keep the ball

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Sit deep

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leioa Compare

Top Goalscorer Agirregomezkorta E.

1 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Portugalete Compare

Top Goalscorer Arreitunandia A.

1 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.55

Avg xA / game 0.95

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leioa 37 / 100

Portugalete 37 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Leioa Portugalete

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Portugalete or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +27.6%

3.45

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.2%

2.22

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Leioa 41%

Portugalete 31%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Leioa 35%

Portugalete 41%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Leioa 37%

Portugalete 39%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Leioa 39%

Portugalete 37%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Leioa 33%

Portugalete 43%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Leioa 43%

Portugalete 45%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Leioa attacking → ← attacking Portugalete

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leioa have found the net in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Portugalete have conceded at least one goal in 57% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.20 goals per match.

Leioa remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Portugalete suffered defeat in 2 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

History Log Unavailable

Historical prediction accuracy logs and success dashboards require a live connection to a completed tips outcome database. This section is currently flagged as: Needs a Real Data Source.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

56 Points in last 5 65

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.71

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.71

N/A Ball possession % N/A

N/A Shots per game N/A

N/A Shots on target N/A

N/A Corners per game N/A

N/A Cards per game N/A

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugalete	34	24	6	4	70:29	78
2	Leioa	34	18	7	9	50:34	61
3	Derio	34	17	7	10	54:40	58
4	Lagun Onak	34	17	6	11	54:34	57
5	Touring KE	34	16	9	9	47:35	57
6	Real Sociedad C	34	17	4	13	48:39	55
7	San Ignacio	34	16	7	11	37:27	55
8	Aurrera de Vitoria	34	16	6	12	42:41	54
9	Alaves C	34	15	8	11	57:40	53
10	UD Aretxabaleta	34	13	6	15	56:61	45
11	SCD Durango	34	11	11	12	35:36	44
12	Santurtzi	34	9	12	13	32:45	39
13	Eibar C	34	9	9	16	44:53	36
14	Pasaia	34	9	9	16	26:46	36
15	Anorga	34	11	4	19	37:59	34
16	Zamudio	34	9	6	19	42:59	33
17	Zarautz KE	34	8	6	20	30:60	30
18	SD Deusto	34	6	7	21	26:49	25