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Lens vs Toulouse - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 1 Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
Sat, Nov 21, 2026
VS
07:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lens host Toulouse in the Ligue 1. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Toulouse have shipped 1.67 goals a game lately, while Lens have conceded 1.57 and scored 1.93. Past meetings favor Lens slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 21, 2026, ending 4:1. xG projections (1.56 - 1.75) back Lens to edge this. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Lens
20%
Draws
46%
Toulouse
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Toulouse

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lens come out ahead of Toulouse on wins alone.
  • Toulouse are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Lens Clean Sheet 12%
Toulouse Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lens Toulouse
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 10
Draws 4 8
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.93 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 21, 2026 Coupe de France
Lens vs Toulouse
4:1
Apr 17, 2026 Ligue 1
Lens vs Toulouse
3:2
Jan 2, 2026 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lens
0:3
May 10, 2025 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lens
1:1
Jan 5, 2025 Ligue 1
Lens vs Toulouse
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lens 10 / 100
Toulouse 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lens Toulouse

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toulouse Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Toulouse conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Lens's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Lens has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lens VS Toulouse
1.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Lens

(Home)
04 Nov
Lens
1 : 9
Como
30 Oct
Lille
1 : 0
Lens
24 Oct
Lens
2 : 1
Paris FC
21 Oct
Club Brugge
3 : 0
Lens
17 Oct
Troyes
1 : 3
Lens
Page 1 of 6

Toulouse

(Away)
06 Nov
Toulouse
3 : 1
Strasbourg
01 Nov
Marseille
2 : 0
Toulouse
25 Oct
Toulouse
0 : 0
Troyes
16 Oct
Le Mans
0 : 3
Toulouse
10 Oct
Monaco
2 : 2
Toulouse
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 9 6 2 1 21:10 20
2 Lille 9 5 3 1 12:6 18
3 Lyon 9 5 2 2 15:7 17
4 Paris FC 9 5 2 2 16:10 17
5 Rennes 9 5 1 3 20:19 16
6 Marseille 9 5 0 4 20:13 15
7 Monaco 9 4 3 2 12:10 15
8 Nice 9 4 2 3 13:12 14
9 Lens 9 4 1 4 16:13 13
10 Toulouse 10 3 4 3 15:14 13
11 Brest 9 3 3 3 16:12 12
12 Lorient 9 3 3 3 7:8 12
13 Strasbourg 10 3 1 6 18:22 10
14 Auxerre 9 3 1 5 13:23 10
15 Angers 9 2 2 5 9:17 8
16 Troyes 9 2 2 5 7:16 8
17 Le Mans 9 1 4 4 11:18 7
18 Le Havre 9 0 2 7 9:20 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)