Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lens vs Toulouse

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Casseres C.
13' Event
Koumbassa S.
Assist: Hidalgo S.
17'
Gboho Y.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Lens and Toulouse finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lens.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Lens
17%
Draws
13%
Toulouse
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Lens

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Toulouse haven't matched Lens's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Lens a 70% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Lens Clean Sheet 19%
Toulouse Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lens Toulouse
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 20 12
Draws 4 7
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 2.38 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.25 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 21, 2026 Coupe de France
Lens vs Toulouse
4:1
Apr 17, 2026 Ligue 1
Lens vs Toulouse
3:2
Jan 2, 2026 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lens
0:3
May 10, 2025 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lens
1:1
Jan 5, 2025 Ligue 1
Lens vs Toulouse
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lens Compare

Top Goalscorer Abdulhamid S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Thomasson A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Toulouse Compare

Top Goalscorer Casseres C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Koumbassa S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lens 67 / 100
Toulouse 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lens Toulouse

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lens found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Toulouse let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Solid form: Lens remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lens VS Toulouse
2.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Lens

(Home)
28 Jul
Lens
0 : 1
Famalicao
28 Jul
Crystal Palace
0 : 3
Lens
25 Jul
Lens
2 : 2
Charleroi
18 Jul
Lens
4 : 1
Boulogne
22 May
Lens
3 : 1
Nice
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Toulouse

(Away)
25 Jul
Toulouse
1 : 1
Rodez
17 May
Nantes
0 : 0
Toulouse
10 May
Toulouse
2 : 1
Lyon
03 May
Strasbourg
1 : 2
Toulouse
25 Apr
Toulouse
2 : 2
Monaco
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PSG34244674:2976
2Lens34224866:3570
3Lille34187952:3761
4Lyon341861053:4060
5Marseille341851163:4559
6Rennes34178959:5059
7Monaco341661260:5454
8Strasbourg341581158:4753
9Toulouse341291347:4645
10Lorient3411121148:5145
11Paris FC3411111247:5044
12Brest341091543:5539
13Angers34991629:4836
14Le Havre347141332:4435
15Auxerre348101634:4434
16Nice347111637:6032
17Nantes34592029:5224
18Metz34382332:7617
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)