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Lentigione vs Castellanzese - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

29'
Rizzi M.
45' Event
Battistello A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D game between Lentigione and Castellanzese finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lentigione.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Lentigione
15%
Draws
48%
Castellanzese
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Castellanzese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lentigione come out ahead of Castellanzese on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Castellanzese's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Lentigione Clean Sheet 15%
Castellanzese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lentigione Castellanzese
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 20 10
Draws 6 6
Losses 5 13
Goals Scored 1.68 1.28
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Lentigione vs Castellanzese
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lentigione Compare

Top Goalscorer Battistello A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Castellanzese Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lentigione 19 / 100
Castellanzese 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lentigione Castellanzese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castellanzese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lentigione found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (31 games).

Castellanzese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Lentigione stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Lentigione VS Castellanzese
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Lentigione

(Home)
07 Oct
Lentigione
1 : 3
Piacenza
04 Oct
Oltrepo
1 : 2
Lentigione
27 Sept
Varese FC
1 : 1
Lentigione
20 Sept
Lentigione
0 : 1
Cittadella Vis Modena
16 Sept
Tropical Coriano
1 : 2
Lentigione
Page 1 of 7

Castellanzese

(Away)
04 Oct
Sant'Angelo
1 : 2
Castellanzese
27 Sept
Castellanzese
4 : 0
Crema
20 Sept
Solbiatese
1 : 4
Castellanzese
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1
Oltrepo
12 Sept
Lentigione
1 : 0
Castellanzese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pistoiese 6 6 0 0 17:1 18
2 Pro Sesto 6 4 1 1 17:5 13
3 Pro Patria 6 4 1 1 10:4 13
4 Lentigione 6 4 1 1 9:6 13
5 Castellanzese 6 4 0 2 13:5 12
6 Cittadella Vis Modena 6 3 1 2 7:4 10
7 USD Casatese 6 3 1 2 10:9 10
8 Correggese 6 3 1 2 7:9 10
9 Sant'Angelo 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
10 Pavia 6 1 4 1 5:3 7
11 Varese FC 6 1 3 2 7:7 6
12 Varesina 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
13 Solbiatese 5 1 2 2 2:6 5
14 Tropical Coriano 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
15 Crema 6 1 1 4 4:14 4
16 Arconatese 6 0 3 3 4:13 3
17 Oltrepo 6 1 0 5 4:14 3
18 US Pontedera 5 0 0 5 3:15 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D (Play Out)