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Lentigione vs US Pontedera - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lentigione host US Pontedera in the Serie D - Group D. Lentigione go into this one as the clear favorite. Recent numbers: Lentigione at 1.72 goals for, 0.97 against; US Pontedera at 0.89 for, 1.82 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. The numbers (1.88 xG vs 0.94) point toward Lentigione. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Lentigione
15%
Draws
0%
US Pontedera
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lentigione

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Lentigione have won more games recently than US Pontedera.
  • Lentigione are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Lentigione Clean Sheet 20%
US Pontedera Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lentigione US Pontedera
Matches Played 32 28
Wins 21 2
Draws 6 8
Losses 5 18
Goals Scored 1.72 0.89
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lentigione 85 / 100
US Pontedera 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lentigione US Pontedera

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lentigione Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lentigione's goal record stands at 91% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

US Pontedera let in goals in 93% of their last 28 matches.

Difficult form: US Pontedera registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Solid form: Lentigione remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lentigione VS US Pontedera
1.63 Goals Scored 0.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lentigione

(Home)
07 Oct
Lentigione
1 : 3
Piacenza
04 Oct
Oltrepo
1 : 2
Lentigione
27 Sept
Varese FC
1 : 1
Lentigione
20 Sept
Lentigione
0 : 1
Cittadella Vis Modena
16 Sept
Tropical Coriano
1 : 2
Lentigione
Page 1 of 7

US Pontedera

(Away)
04 Oct
US Pontedera
0 : 3
Cittadella Vis Modena
20 Sept
US Pontedera
0 : 3
Varese FC
16 Sept
Pro Sesto
3 : 0
US Pontedera
12 Sept
US Pontedera
2 : 3
Pro Patria
06 Sept
Castellanzese
3 : 1
US Pontedera
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pistoiese 6 6 0 0 17:1 18
2 Pro Sesto 6 4 1 1 17:5 13
3 Pro Patria 6 4 1 1 10:4 13
4 Lentigione 6 4 1 1 9:6 13
5 Castellanzese 6 4 0 2 13:5 12
6 Cittadella Vis Modena 6 3 1 2 7:4 10
7 USD Casatese 6 3 1 2 10:9 10
8 Correggese 6 3 1 2 7:9 10
9 Sant'Angelo 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
10 Pavia 6 1 4 1 5:3 7
11 Varese FC 6 1 3 2 7:7 6
12 Varesina 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
13 Solbiatese 5 1 2 2 2:6 5
14 Tropical Coriano 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
15 Crema 6 1 1 4 4:14 4
16 Arconatese 6 0 3 3 4:13 3
17 Oltrepo 6 1 0 5 4:14 3
18 US Pontedera 5 0 0 5 3:15 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D (Play Out)