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Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra, Ibarra
Leones del Norte Logo

Leones del Norte

2 - 3
FT
Independiente del Valle Logo

Independiente del Valle

Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Anangono J.
Assist: Madero P.
24'
Madero P.
27'
Kreiman B.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Leones del Norte and Independiente del Valle finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Independiente del Valle.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Leones del Norte
30%
Draws
47%
Independiente del Valle
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Independiente del Valle

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Independiente del Valle come out ahead of Leones del Norte on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Liga Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Leones del Norte Clean Sheet 16%
Independiente del Valle Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leones del Norte Independiente del Valle
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 24
Draws 7 2
Losses 11 3
Goals Scored 1.07 2.45
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Liga Pro
Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle
2:3
Apr 25, 2026 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leones del Norte Compare

Top Goalscorer Anangono J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Independiente del Valle Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Reasco D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leones del Norte 31 / 100
Independiente del Valle 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leones del Norte Independiente del Valle

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Leones del Norte scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Leones del Norte has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Independiente del Valle conceded in 55% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Leones del Norte VS Independiente del Valle
1 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Leones del Norte

(Home)
19 Sept
Guayaquil City
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
13 Sept
Leones del Norte
0 : 1
Tecnico U.
08 Sept
Mushuc Runa
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
03 Sept
Leones del Norte
1 : 0
Orense
30 Aug
Emelec
2 : 1
Leones del Norte
Page 1 of 6

Independiente del Valle

(Away)
25 Sept
Gualaceo
0 : 2
Independiente del Valle
18 Sept
Flamengo RJ
1 : 1
Independiente del Valle
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3
Independiente del Valle
11 Sept
Independiente del Valle
0 : 2
Flamengo RJ
05 Sept
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1
Macara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)