Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra, Ibarra
Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Monserrat N.
12'
Peralta K.
31' Event
Griffa E.
Assist: Arroyo R.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Leones del Norte and Mushuc Runa finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leones del Norte.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Leones del Norte
35%
Draws
35%
Mushuc Runa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Leones del Norte carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Leones del Norte are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Leones del Norte Clean Sheet 17%
Mushuc Runa Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leones del Norte Mushuc Runa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 8 10
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.07 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 8, 2026 Liga Pro
Mushuc Runa vs Leones del Norte
1:1
May 17, 2026 Liga Pro
Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa
3:1
Jul 21, 2024 Copa Ecuador
Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leones del Norte Compare

Top Goalscorer Griffa E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pazmino D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Mushuc Runa Compare

Top Goalscorer Mina F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leones del Norte 36 / 100
Mushuc Runa 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leones del Norte Mushuc Runa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Leones del Norte scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Mushuc Runa let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Leones del Norte has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Leones del Norte VS Mushuc Runa
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Leones del Norte

(Home)
19 Sept
Guayaquil City
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
13 Sept
Leones del Norte
0 : 1
Tecnico U.
08 Sept
Mushuc Runa
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
03 Sept
Leones del Norte
1 : 0
Orense
30 Aug
Emelec
2 : 1
Leones del Norte
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Mushuc Runa

(Away)
20 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
1 : 1
Mushuc Runa
12 Sept
Guayaquil City
3 : 1
Mushuc Runa
08 Sept
Mushuc Runa
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
02 Sept
LDU Quito
0 : 0
Mushuc Runa
28 Aug
Mushuc Runa
1 : 0
Delfin
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)