Sport Picks
Leones Negros vs Atlante - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara 
Match Events
32'
32'
Meza H.
34'
34'
Perez J.
Penalty Missed
51'
51'
Puente L.
Assist: Escobar A.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 game between Leones Negros and Atlante finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
41%
35%
24%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Leones Negros
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ Low Confidence
- Leones Negros's 1.57 goals per match outpaces what Atlante have produced (1.41).
- 41% — that's where the model lands on Leones Negros taking it.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 20%
Atlante Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Leones Negros | Atlante |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 9 |
| Draws | 7 | 11 |
| Losses | 12 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.57 | 1.41 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.79 | 1.52 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.88 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 1, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Atlante
1:1
Sep 21, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Atlante vs Leones Negros
1:0
Mar 8, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Atlante vs Leones Negros
2:1
Sep 22, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Atlante
3:3
May 12, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Atlante
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Leones Negros Compare
Top Goalscorer Perez J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94
Atlante Compare
Top Goalscorer Puente L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Leones Negros 67 / 100
Atlante 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Leones Negros Atlante
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Leones Negros Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Leones Negros found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).
Atlante let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Solid form: Leones Negros remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Leones Negros VS Atlante
1.88 Goals Scored 0.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Leones Negros
(Home) 04 Oct
Leones Negros
6 : 3 Dorados de Sinaloa
26 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 2 Leones Negros
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Leones Negros
6 : 3 Dorados de Sinaloa
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
30 Aug
Leones Negros
1 : 1 Piratas
16 Aug
Leones Negros
4 : 0 Jaiba Brava
07 Aug
Leones Negros
1 : 3 Correcaminos
Page 1 of 3
Atlante
(Away) 26 Sept
Atlante
4 : 2 Monterrey
19 Sept
Puebla
1 : 1 Atlante
12 Sept
Atlante
0 : 3 Pachuca
06 Sept
Atlas
1 : 1 Atlante
29 Aug
Atlante
1 : 1 Club Leon
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Puebla
1 : 1 Atlante
06 Sept
Atlas
1 : 1 Atlante
22 Aug
Tigres UANL
2 : 0 Atlante
12 Aug
Minnesota United
3 : 1 Atlante
09 Aug
Real Salt Lake
4 : 0 Atlante
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
