Sport Picks
Leones Negros vs Atletico La Paz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara 
Match Events
17'
17'
Brigido J.
Assist: De Jesus Bravo Santiago A.
34'
34'
De Jesus Bravo Santiago A.
37'
37'
Robles C.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX game between Leones Negros and Atletico La Paz finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Atletico La Paz come out ahead of Leones Negros on wins alone.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 10%
Atletico La Paz Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Leones Negros | Atletico La Paz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 11 |
| Draws | 7 | 10 |
| Losses | 12 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.57 | 1.69 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.79 | 1.28 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 13, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Atletico La Paz
2:2
Mar 5, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Leones Negros
3:0
Sep 14, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Atletico La Paz
2:3
Mar 29, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Leones Negros
3:1
Oct 13, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Atletico La Paz
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Leones Negros Compare
Top Goalscorer Brigido J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Atletico La Paz Compare
Top Goalscorer Barragan M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Torres H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Leones Negros 30 / 100
Atletico La Paz 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Leones Negros Atletico La Paz
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.
Leones Negros found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).
Atletico La Paz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.
Solid form: Leones Negros remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Leones Negros VS Atletico La Paz
1.88 Goals Scored 2.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Leones Negros
(Home) 04 Oct
Leones Negros
6 : 3 Dorados de Sinaloa
26 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 2 Leones Negros
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Leones Negros
6 : 3 Dorados de Sinaloa
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
30 Aug
Leones Negros
1 : 1 Piratas
16 Aug
Leones Negros
4 : 0 Jaiba Brava
07 Aug
Leones Negros
1 : 3 Correcaminos
Page 1 of 3
Atletico La Paz
(Away) 03 Oct
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2 Venados FC
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
19 Sept
Atletico La Paz
3 : 1 Correcaminos
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
05 Sept
Atletico La Paz
3 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
Page 1 of 6
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
28 Aug
Cancun
1 : 2 Atletico La Paz
08 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 5 Atletico La Paz
26 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 2 Atletico La Paz
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 27:16 | 23 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Morelia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 3 | Atletico La Paz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24:13 | 20 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 26:21 | 19 |
| 5 | Piratas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16:10 | 18 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Cancun | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19:15 | 17 |
| 8 | Alacranes de Durango | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11:11 | 17 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19:18 | 16 |
| 10 | Tapatio | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17:15 | 14 |
| 11 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 13 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19:23 | 12 |
| 13 | Jaiba Brava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | 11 |
| 14 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8:22 | 10 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | 8 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 8:29 | 6 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
