Sport Picks
Leones Negros vs Cancun
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara 
Match Events
26'
26'
Meza U.
39'
39'
Brigido J.
43'
43'
Chavez A.
AI Match Summary
Cancun in this Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cancun.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
35%
32%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
32%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Cancun lately — more wins on the board than Leones Negros.
- Win probability leans Cancun's way, sitting at 40%.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Leones Negros here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 16%
Cancun Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Leones Negros | Cancun |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 9 | 13 |
| Draws | 7 | 8 |
| Losses | 14 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.37 | 1.55 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.73 | 1.39 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 2, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Cancun vs Leones Negros
0:2
Apr 19, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Cancun
1:2
Nov 9, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Cancun vs Leones Negros
0:1
Feb 23, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Cancun
1:0
Sep 7, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Cancun vs Leones Negros
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Leones Negros Compare
Top Goalscorer Ledesma A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Cancun Compare
Top Goalscorer Rodriguez J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Leones Negros 28 / 100
Cancun 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Leones Negros Cancun
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Cancun Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Leones Negros's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Defensive concern: Cancun conceded in 77% of 31 recent games.
H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.
Leones Negros went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Leones Negros VS Cancun
1.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Leones Negros
(Home) 26 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 2 Leones Negros
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
30 Aug
Leones Negros
1 : 1 Piratas
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
30 Aug
Leones Negros
1 : 1 Piratas
16 Aug
Leones Negros
4 : 0 Jaiba Brava
07 Aug
Leones Negros
1 : 3 Correcaminos
19 Apr
Leones Negros
1 : 2 Cancun
Page 1 of 3
Cancun
(Away) 26 Sept
Tlaxcala
4 : 1 Cancun
20 Sept
Cancun
3 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
16 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
1 : 1 Cancun
12 Sept
Correcaminos
2 : 2 Cancun
06 Sept
Cancun
6 : 0 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Page 1 of 7
26 Sept
Tlaxcala
4 : 1 Cancun
16 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
1 : 1 Cancun
12 Sept
Correcaminos
2 : 2 Cancun
23 Aug
Piratas
0 : 1 Cancun
09 Aug
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 1 Cancun
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
