Sport Picks
Leones Negros vs Jaiba Brava - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara 
Match Events
2'
2'
Gonzalez O.
Assist: Gil O.
10'
10'
Manzanarez O.
15'
15'
Alcantar D.
AI Match Summary
Leones Negros in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leones Negros.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
20%
23%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Leones Negros
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Jaiba Brava lately — more wins on the board than Leones Negros.
- Model gives Leones Negros a 57% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 68%
Jaiba Brava Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Leones Negros | Jaiba Brava |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 12 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.57 | 1.23 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.79 | 1.37 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.88 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 16, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Jaiba Brava
4:0
Jan 11, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Jaiba Brava
4:1
Nov 17, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Jaiba Brava vs Leones Negros
4:1
Nov 14, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Jaiba Brava
1:0
Aug 3, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Jaiba Brava vs Leones Negros
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Leones Negros Compare
Top Goalscorer Gonzalez O.
1 Goals Assists Leader Gil O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94
Jaiba Brava Compare
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Leones Negros 95 / 100
Jaiba Brava 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Leones Negros Jaiba Brava
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Leones Negros Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 3.20 goals.
Leones Negros scored in 79% of their last 28 games.
Jaiba Brava's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.
Solid form: Leones Negros remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Leones Negros VS Jaiba Brava
1.88 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Leones Negros
(Home) 04 Oct
Leones Negros
6 : 3 Dorados de Sinaloa
26 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 2 Leones Negros
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Leones Negros
6 : 3 Dorados de Sinaloa
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
30 Aug
Leones Negros
1 : 1 Piratas
16 Aug
Leones Negros
4 : 0 Jaiba Brava
07 Aug
Leones Negros
1 : 3 Correcaminos
Page 1 of 3
Jaiba Brava
(Away) 03 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
26 Sept
Correcaminos
1 : 0 Jaiba Brava
20 Sept
Jaiba Brava
1 : 1 Dorados de Sinaloa
12 Sept
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
06 Sept
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Venados FC
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
26 Sept
Correcaminos
1 : 0 Jaiba Brava
12 Sept
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
30 Aug
Zacatecas Mineros
2 : 0 Jaiba Brava
16 Aug
Leones Negros
4 : 0 Jaiba Brava
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 27:16 | 23 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Morelia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 3 | Atletico La Paz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24:13 | 20 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 26:21 | 19 |
| 5 | Piratas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16:10 | 18 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Cancun | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19:15 | 17 |
| 8 | Alacranes de Durango | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11:11 | 17 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19:18 | 16 |
| 10 | Tapatio | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17:15 | 14 |
| 11 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 13 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19:23 | 12 |
| 13 | Jaiba Brava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | 11 |
| 14 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8:22 | 10 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | 8 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 8:29 | 6 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
