Sport Picks

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Leones Negros vs Piratas

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Palomares R.
23' Event
Soto O.
Own Goal
42'
Torres U.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Leones Negros
35%
Draws
32%
Piratas
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Leones Negros have won more games recently than Piratas.
  • 33% — that's where the model lands on Leones Negros taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.8%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 68%
Piratas Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leones Negros Piratas
Matches Played 28 10
Wins 8 4
Draws 7 3
Losses 13 3
Goals Scored 1.39 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.82 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Piratas
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leones Negros 68 / 100
Piratas 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leones Negros Piratas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leones Negros Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leones Negros found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

Piratas's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 10 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Leones Negros went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Leones Negros VS Piratas
1.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Leones Negros

(Home)
26 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 2
Leones Negros
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0
Leones Negros
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2
Atletico La Paz
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3
Leones Negros
30 Aug
Leones Negros
1 : 1
Piratas
Page 1 of 6

Piratas

(Away)
25 Sept
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 0
Piratas
19 Sept
Piratas
2 : 1
Venados FC
11 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 1
Piratas
06 Sept
Piratas
4 : 1
Correcaminos
30 Aug
Leones Negros
1 : 1
Piratas
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club Atletico Morelia 10 7 0 3 20:11 21
2 Atletico La Paz 10 6 2 2 23:11 20
3 Leones Negros 10 6 2 2 21:13 20
4 Zacatecas Mineros 10 5 2 3 21:15 17
5 Venados FC 10 5 1 4 24:20 16
6 Piratas 10 4 3 3 12:10 15
7 Correcaminos 10 4 3 3 19:18 15
8 Cancun 10 4 2 4 18:15 14
9 Tapatio 9 4 2 3 17:14 14
10 Alacranes de Durango 10 4 2 4 7:9 14
11 Dorados de Sinaloa 10 3 4 3 17:14 13
12 Tlaxcala 10 3 2 5 18:22 11
13 Jaiba Brava 10 3 2 5 11:16 11
14 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 3 1 6 8:18 10
15 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 10 1 4 5 11:18 7
16 Tepatitlan de Morelos 9 1 0 8 5:28 3
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)