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Leones Negros vs Zacatecas Mineros

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Jalisco
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Lopez F.
Assist: Mazatan O.
13' Event
Padilla P.
30' Event
Munoz D.
Assist: Camacho Lastra R. E.

AI Match Summary

Zacatecas Mineros in this Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Zacatecas Mineros.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Leones Negros
6%
Draws
4%
Zacatecas Mineros
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Leones Negros

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Zacatecas Mineros have won more games recently than Leones Negros.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Leones Negros taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 16%
Zacatecas Mineros Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leones Negros Zacatecas Mineros
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 7 10
Draws 7 8
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.29 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Zacatecas Mineros
1:3
Oct 12, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Zacatecas Mineros vs Leones Negros
2:0
Jan 26, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Zacatecas Mineros vs Leones Negros
0:0
Nov 10, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Zacatecas Mineros
3:1
Nov 7, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Zacatecas Mineros vs Leones Negros
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leones Negros Compare

Top Goalscorer Munoz D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Zacatecas Mineros Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Padilla P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leones Negros 84 / 100
Zacatecas Mineros 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leones Negros Zacatecas Mineros

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leones Negros found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Zacatecas Mineros's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Zacatecas Mineros's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Leones Negros VS Zacatecas Mineros
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1.29 Goals Conceded 1.25
86% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 75%
14% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tepatitlan de Morelos1475221:1026
2Cancun1474324:1725
3Club Atletico Morelia1472518:1223
4Atletico La Paz1457222:1222
5Jaiba Brava1463515:1521
6Zacatecas Mineros1463519:2021
7Tapatio1462628:2420
8Atlante1455421:1720
9Irapuato1462627:2420
10Tlaxcala1455416:1720
11Venados FC1444625:2516
12Alebrijes de Oaxaca1444620:2916
13Dorados de Sinaloa1434717:2813
14Correcaminos1433814:2712
15Leones Negros1425715:2511