Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Leones vs Orsomarso - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Colombia Colombia

Copa Colombia Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui, Itagui
Leones Logo

Leones

2 - 0
FT
Orsomarso Logo

Orsomarso

Our Tip

Match Events

57' Event
Martinez J.
60' Event
Palacios L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. The second leg ended 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Leones
35%
Draws
32%
Orsomarso
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Leones have managed 0.71 goals a game lately — Orsomarso are scoring more at 0.75.
  • Model gives Leones a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Orsomarso, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 26%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Leones Clean Sheet 18%
Orsomarso Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leones Orsomarso
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 5 5
Draws 9 12
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 0.71 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2026 Copa Colombia
Leones vs Orsomarso
2:0
Apr 18, 2026 Primera B
Orsomarso vs Leones
0:0
Jul 19, 2025 Primera B
Leones vs Orsomarso
0:1
Feb 9, 2025 Primera B
Orsomarso vs Leones
2:3
Sep 8, 2024 Primera B
Orsomarso vs Leones
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leones Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Palacios L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Orsomarso Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leones 41 / 100
Orsomarso 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leones Orsomarso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leones scored in 61% of their last 28 games.

Orsomarso has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Orsomarso has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Leones VS Orsomarso
0.63 Goals Scored 0.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Leones

(Home)
07 Oct
Leones
1 : 1
Barranquilla
28 Sept
Inter Palmira
1 : 0
Leones
19 Sept
Leones
1 : 2
Boca Juniors de Cali
12 Sept
Envigado
1 : 1
Leones
04 Sept
Leones
0 : 3
Atletico F.C.
Page 1 of 6

Orsomarso

(Away)
06 Oct
Orsomarso
0 : 1
Quindio
01 Oct
Envigado
0 : 0
Orsomarso
28 Sept
Independiente Valle del Cauca
4 : 3
Orsomarso
22 Sept
Real Santander
0 : 0
Orsomarso
14 Sept
Orsomarso
0 : 2
Atletico F.C.
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dep. Cali 4 4 0 0 10:2 12
2 Alianza 4 2 1 1 6:3 7
3 Boca Juniors de Cali 4 2 1 1 8:8 7
4 Bucaramanga 4 1 0 3 8:7 3
5 Real Santander 4 0 0 4 1:13 0
Promotion - Copa Colombia (First stage - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Millonarios 4 3 1 0 14:5 10
2 Llaneros 4 3 0 1 7:2 9
3 Chico 4 1 2 1 6:3 5
4 Patriotas 4 0 2 2 4:7 2
5 Atletico F.C. 4 0 1 3 2:16 1
Promotion - Copa Colombia (First stage - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ind. Medellin 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
2 Fortaleza C.E.I.F. 4 1 2 1 5:3 5
3 Leones 4 1 2 1 4:5 5
4 Cucuta 4 0 3 1 2:3 3
5 Orsomarso 4 0 3 1 3:5 3
Promotion - Copa Colombia (First stage - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dep. Pereira 4 2 2 0 4:2 8
2 Real Cundinamarca 4 2 1 1 6:4 7
3 Aguilas Doradas 4 1 3 0 7:4 6
4 Jaguares de Cordoba 4 1 1 2 4:3 4
5 Independiente Valle del Cauca 4 0 1 3 2:10 1
Promotion - Copa Colombia (First stage - Play Offs)