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Leopards vs Mara Sugar

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Beja H.
30' Event
Drona O. L.
62' Event
Omune V.

AI Match Summary

Leopards in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leopards.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Leopards
33%
Draws
27%
Mara Sugar
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Leopards

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Leopards lately — more wins on the board than Mara Sugar.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Leopards taking it.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Leopards Clean Sheet 20%
Mara Sugar Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leopards Mara Sugar
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 18 9
Draws 4 12
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.25 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Premier League
Leopards vs Mara Sugar
2:1
Nov 8, 2025 Premier League
Mara Sugar vs Leopards
2:0
Feb 15, 2025 Premier League
Mara Sugar vs Leopards
1:2
Nov 10, 2024 Premier League
Leopards vs Mara Sugar
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leopards Compare

Top Goalscorer Beja H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Omune V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Mara Sugar Compare

Top Goalscorer Drona O. L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leopards 40 / 100
Mara Sugar 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leopards Mara Sugar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leopards's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Mara Sugar conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Leopards stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Leopards VS Mara Sugar
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 25%
38% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Leopards

(Home)
31 May
Leopards
1 : 2
Bidco United
24 May
APS Bomet
2 : 1
Leopards
16 May
Kakamega Homeboyz
1 : 2
Leopards
13 May
Ulinzi Stars
0 : 2
Leopards
09 May
Leopards
2 : 1
Mara Sugar
Page 1 of 6

Mara Sugar

(Away)
31 May
Muranga
2 : 1
Mara Sugar
27 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 0
Mahia
16 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 1
Mathare United
13 May
Mara Sugar
1 : 0
Shabana
09 May
Leopards
2 : 1
Mara Sugar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Mahia34209550:2269
2Leopards34197844:2864
3Police FC341316531:2155
4Nairobi United341411944:3453
5Shabana3414101035:3452
6Kakamega Homeboyz341213947:3749
7KCB341391236:3748
8Muranga341381342:4147
9Tusker341361527:3245
10APS Bomet3411111237:3544
11Mara Sugar3410141030:3044
12Bandari34917826:2644
13Ulinzi Stars341181534:3741
14Mathare United341181531:3541
15Posta Rangers349131231:4040
16Kariobangi Sharks348141230:3338
17Bidco United345121719:4027
18Sofapaka343102119:5119
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)