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Leuven vs Charleroi

Belgium Belgium

Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 Den Dreef, Heverlee
Our Tip

Match Events

38'
Kaba S.
46'
Sub
Vlietinck T. In: Gil O.
Out: Vlietinck T.
46'
Sub
Kayo B. In: Lakomy L.
Out: Kayo B.

AI Match Summary

The Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 game between Leuven and Charleroi finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Charleroi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Leuven
15%
Draws
64%
Charleroi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Charleroi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Charleroi come out ahead of Leuven on wins alone.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on Charleroi taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Leuven Clean Sheet 10%
Charleroi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leuven Charleroi
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 12
Draws 6 5
Losses 17 13
Goals Scored 1.33 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs Leuven
3:1
May 19, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs Leuven
1:1
Apr 25, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Leuven vs Charleroi
0:2
Mar 14, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs Leuven
0:2
Jul 27, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
Leuven vs Charleroi
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leuven Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Charleroi Compare

Top Goalscorer Bernier A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Scheidler A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.36

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leuven 10 / 100
Charleroi 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leuven Charleroi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Charleroi Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Leuven scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Charleroi's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Solid form: Leuven remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Leuven VS Charleroi
1.25 Goals Scored 2.13
2.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Leuven

(Home)
19 Sept
Leuven
2 : 0
RAAL La Louviere
12 Sept
Leuven
1 : 1
Cercle Brugge
06 Sept
SK Beveren
3 : 0
Leuven
03 Sept
Gent
1 : 0
Leuven
29 Aug
Leuven
1 : 2
St. Liege
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Charleroi

(Away)
19 Sept
Charleroi
3 : 2
Cercle Brugge
13 Sept
Waregem
0 : 1
Charleroi
05 Sept
Charleroi
2 : 3
Royale Union SG
29 Aug
Kortrijk
1 : 3
Charleroi
22 Aug
Charleroi
2 : 0
KV Mechelen
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
7 Genk 10 4 5 1 11:6 38
8 St. Liege 10 5 2 3 17:11 37
9 Charleroi 10 5 2 3 12:8 34
10 Westerlo 10 4 1 5 14:17 33
11 Antwerp 10 4 1 5 12:16 31
12 Leuven 10 1 3 6 9:17 23
Promotion - Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)