Sport Picks

Estonia

Esiliiga Maarjamae staadion

Elva

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Levadia U21 play Elva in the Esiliiga. It looks like a close match. Recently, Levadia U21 averaged 1.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded. Elva averaged 1.86 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. In past meetings, Levadia U21 won 1, Elva won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 28, 2026 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Levadia U21 and 1.50 for Elva. This points to a Elva double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Levadia U21

15%

Draws

43%

Elva

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Elva

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Levadia U21 picked up more points recently compared to Elva.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 1.50 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 77%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 90%

Over 2.5 Goals 77%

Over 3.5 Goals 46%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%

Levadia U21 Clean Sheet 16%

Elva Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 81%

Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Levadia U21	Elva
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	12	13
Draws	3	2
Losses	13	14
Goals Scored	1.86	1.86
Goals Conceded	1.86	1.83
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 28, 2026 Esiliiga

Levadia U21 vs Elva

Possession: 58% - 52% Cards: 3 - 2

1:3

Mar 21, 2026 Esiliiga

Elva vs Levadia U21

Possession: 57% - 54% Cards: 2 - 0

3:2

Oct 23, 2025 Esiliiga

Levadia U21 vs Elva

Possession: 51% - 43% Cards: 3 - 3

2:1

Aug 9, 2025 Esiliiga

Elva vs Levadia U21

Possession: 50% - 49% Cards: 3 - 3

2:0

Jun 1, 2025 Esiliiga

Elva vs Levadia U21

Possession: 41% - 49% Cards: 1 - 0

2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Levadia U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Pavlovits V.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

Elva Compare

Top Goalscorer Lani G.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Kutt V.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Levadia U21 41 / 100

Elva 41 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Levadia U21 Elva

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Elva or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23.5%

2.94

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8.6%

1.41

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Levadia U21 attacking → ← attacking Elva

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Levadia U21 scored in 89% of their last 28 games.

Elva let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Levadia U21 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Elva lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 41

1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.50

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	18	13	3	2	54:23	42
2	Viimsi JK	17	9	4	4	28:14	31
3	Flora Tallinn U21	15	9	3	3	42:27	30
4	Elva	17	7	2	8	29:30	23
5	Tallinna Kalev	18	6	4	8	35:36	22
6	Maardu Linnameeskond	17	5	5	7	23:36	20
7	Nomme Utd U21	17	5	4	8	34:41	19
8	Levadia U21	17	6	0	11	30:33	18
9	FC Tallinn	18	4	5	9	25:46	17
10	Kalju U21	16	5	2	9	26:40	17