Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Levadia U21 vs Tartu JK Welco

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga Maarjamae staadion, Tallinn
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Sambe M.
55' Event
Kiivit A.
58' Event
Magi M.

AI Match Summary

The Esiliiga game between Levadia U21 and Tartu JK Welco finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tartu JK Welco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Levadia U21
30%
Draws
37%
Tartu JK Welco
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tartu JK Welco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Tartu JK Welco carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Levadia U21 a 33% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Esiliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Levadia U21 Clean Sheet 10%
Tartu JK Welco Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Levadia U21 Tartu JK Welco
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 19
Draws 2 5
Losses 15 6
Goals Scored 2 3.07
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 10, 2026 Esiliiga
Levadia U21 vs Tartu JK Welco
0:0
Aug 20, 2026 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Levadia U21
4:2
Jun 18, 2026 Esiliiga
Levadia U21 vs Tartu JK Welco
1:3
Apr 17, 2026 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Levadia U21
3:2
Sep 27, 2025 Esiliiga
Levadia U21 vs Tartu JK Welco
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Levadia U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Sambe M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Tartu JK Welco Compare

Top Goalscorer Kiivit A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Magi M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Levadia U21 47 / 100
Tartu JK Welco 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Levadia U21 Tartu JK Welco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Levadia U21 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Levadia U21 scored in 86% of their last 28 games.

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Tartu JK Welco conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Levadia U21 stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Levadia U21 VS Tartu JK Welco
2.38 Goals Scored 2.75
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Levadia U21

(Home)
19 Sept
Levadia U21
:
Maardu Linnameeskond
13 Sept
FC Tallinn
1 : 5
Levadia U21
10 Sept
Levadia U21
0 : 0
Tartu JK Welco
04 Sept
Levadia U21
6 : 2
Flora Tallinn U21
29 Aug
Maardu Linnameeskond
4 : 2
Levadia U21
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Tartu JK Welco

(Away)
17 Sept
Viimsi JK
0 : 2
Tartu JK Welco
14 Sept
Tartu JK Welco
3 : 0
Kalju U21
10 Sept
Levadia U21
0 : 0
Tartu JK Welco
05 Sept
Tallinna Kalev
1 : 1
Tartu JK Welco
29 Aug
Tartu JK Welco
1 : 3
Viimsi JK
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tartu JK Welco 30 19 5 6 81:39 62
2 Viimsi JK 30 15 5 10 56:31 50
3 Flora Tallinn U21 30 14 6 10 72:53 48
4 Elva 30 14 6 10 47:44 48
5 Maardu Linnameeskond 27 12 5 10 45:55 41
6 Levadia U21 29 13 2 14 60:55 41
7 Tallinna Kalev 29 10 7 12 52:55 37
8 Nomme Utd U21 30 10 6 14 50:62 36
9 FC Tallinn 29 7 8 14 35:63 29
10 Kalju U21 30 6 4 20 38:79 22
Promotion - Meistriliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B 2027 (Main)