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Lexington vs Flower City Union

USA USA

US Open Cup Toyota Stadium, Georgetown, KY
Lexington Logo

Lexington

9 - 0
FT
Flower City Union Logo

Flower City Union

Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Nick Firmino
Assist: Zengue X.
36' Event
Molloy A.
40' Event
Epps M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 9-0. This leg finished 9-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Lexington
15%
Draws
42%
Flower City Union
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lexington

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Flower City Union haven't matched Lexington's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Lexington a 43% chance of winning this.
  • Lexington have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Lexington, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Lexington Clean Sheet 68%
Flower City Union Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lexington Flower City Union
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 12
Draws 3 3
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 2.07 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.67 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2026 US Open Cup
Lexington vs Flower City Union
9:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lexington Compare

Top Goalscorer Nick Firmino
2 Goals
Assists Leader Molloy A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.28
Avg xA / game 0.83

Flower City Union Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lexington 95 / 100
Flower City Union 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lexington Flower City Union

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lexington Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 9.00 goals.

Attacking prowess: Lexington scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Flower City Union's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Lexington has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lexington VS -
2.13 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lexington

(Home)
27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3
Lexington
19 Sept
Lexington
6 : 0
Orange County SC
13 Sept
Oakland Roots
1 : 4
Lexington
05 Sept
Sporting Jax
3 : 2
Lexington
29 Aug
Lexington
0 : 1
Colorado Springs
Page 1 of 6

Flower City Union

(Away)
19 Mar
Lexington
9 : 0
Flower City Union
11 Nov
Michigan Stars
0 : 1
Flower City Union
05 Nov
Chattanooga
0 : 1
Flower City Union
30 Oct
LA Force
2 : 4
Flower City Union
14 Oct
Flower City Union
0 : 2
Chattanooga
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/64-finals
FC Naples 3
Red Force 0
South Georgia Tormenta -
America CFL Spurs -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Orlando City -
New England Revolution -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Rhode Island 4
Faialense 0
Motown 0
Hartford Athletic 2
Chattanooga 2
Kalonji 1
Tennessee Tempo 1
Chattanooga Red Wolves 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Atlanta United -
Charlotte FC -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Charlotte Independence 4
Ristozi FC 1
Charleston 2
Florida Badgers 1
Richmond Kickers 2
Northern Virginia 0
West Chester United 1
Loudoun United 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Columbus Crew -
DC United -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Asheville City 3
Greenville Triumph 1
Vistula 1
One Knoxville 3
Vermont Green 1
Portland Hearts of Pine 0
Westchester SC 2
NY Renegades 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
New York City -
New York Red Bulls -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Steel City 1
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2
Carolina Core 1
Virginia Dream 2
Flint City 2
Forward Madison 0
Detroit City 5
Michigan Rangers 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chicago Fire -
St. Louis City -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
San Antonio FC 6
New Stars 0
Little Rock Rangers 2
FC Tulsa 4
Lexington 9
Flower City Union 0
Louisville City 2
Southern Indiana 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Austin FC -
Houston Dynamo -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
New Mexico 3
Cruizers FC 2
Laredo Heat 0
El Paso Locomotive 2
Colorado Springs 3
Azteca 0
Ventura 1
Spokane Velocity 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Sporting Kansas City -
Colorado Rapids -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Indy Eleven 3
Menace 0
BOHFS St. Louis 0
Union Omaha 8
AV Alta FC 0
Valley 559 FC 1
Sacramento Republic 2
El Farolito 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Minnesota United -
San Jose Earthquakes -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Orange County SC 3
Laguna United 0
Phoenix Rising 4
San Ramon 0
1/32-finals
FC Naples 3
America CFL Spurs 0
TBD -
Orlando City -
New England Revolution -
TBD -
Rhode Island 2
Hartford Athletic 0
Chattanooga 1
Tennessee Tempo 0
TBD -
Atlanta United -
Charlotte FC -
TBD -
Charlotte Independence 3
Charleston 2
Richmond Kickers 1
Loudoun United 0
TBD -
Columbus Crew -
DC United -
TBD -
Asheville City 1
One Knoxville 2
Vermont Green 0
Westchester SC 1
TBD -
New York City -
New York Red Bulls -
TBD -
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2
Virginia Dream 0
Flint City 0
Detroit City 1
TBD -
Chicago Fire -
St. Louis City -
TBD -
San Antonio FC 0
FC Tulsa 1
Lexington 0
Louisville City 2
TBD -
Austin FC -
Houston Dynamo -
TBD -
New Mexico 0
El Paso Locomotive 4
Colorado Springs 2
Spokane Velocity 1
TBD -
Sporting Kansas City -
Colorado Rapids -
TBD -
Indy Eleven 1
Union Omaha 2
Valley 559 FC 0
Sacramento Republic 4
TBD -
Minnesota United -
San Jose Earthquakes -
TBD -
Orange County SC 1
Phoenix Rising 2
1/16-finals
FC Naples 0
Orlando City 1
New England Revolution 2
Rhode Island 1
Chattanooga 1
Atlanta United 3
Charlotte FC 6
Charlotte Independence 0
Richmond Kickers 0
Columbus Crew 3
DC United 3
One Knoxville 4
Westchester SC 2
New York City 5
New York Red Bulls 3
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1
Detroit City 1
Chicago Fire 2
St. Louis City 4
FC Tulsa 0
Louisville City 2
Austin FC 1
Houston Dynamo 4
El Paso Locomotive 1
Colorado Springs 3
Sporting Kansas City 0
Colorado Rapids 1
Union Omaha 0
Sacramento Republic 0
Minnesota United 1
San Jose Earthquakes 2
Phoenix Rising 0
1/8-finals
Orlando City 4
New England Revolution 3
Atlanta United 2
Charlotte FC 0
Columbus Crew 4
One Knoxville 1
New York City 3
New York Red Bulls 1
Chicago Fire 1
St. Louis City 2
Louisville City 1
Houston Dynamo 2
Colorado Springs 2
Colorado Rapids 3
Minnesota United 2
San Jose Earthquakes 4
Quarter-finals
Orlando City 4
Atlanta United 1
Columbus Crew 1
New York City 0
St. Louis City 3
Houston Dynamo 2
Colorado Rapids 2
San Jose Earthquakes 0
Semi-finals
Orlando City 1
Columbus Crew 2
St. Louis City 3
Colorado Rapids 0
Final
Columbus Crew -
St. Louis City -