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Liberia vs Saprissa

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceno, Liberia
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Arevalo T.
17'
Rios J.
46'
Sub
Rios J. In: Hudson A.
Out: Rios J.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Primera Division 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-1. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Liberia
20%
Draws
33%
Saprissa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Liberia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Liberia haven't matched Saprissa's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Liberia's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Saprissa arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 34%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Liberia Clean Sheet 14%
Saprissa Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Liberia Saprissa
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 13 21
Draws 7 4
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.17 2.09
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.12
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Primera Division
Saprissa vs Liberia
2:0
May 3, 2026 Primera Division
Liberia vs Saprissa
1:1
Apr 12, 2026 Primera Division
Saprissa vs Liberia
1:2
Mar 29, 2026 Copa Costa Rica
Saprissa vs Liberia
5:1
Mar 26, 2026 Copa Costa Rica
Liberia vs Saprissa
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Liberia Compare

Top Goalscorer Arevalo T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Saprissa Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Liberia 41 / 100
Saprissa 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Liberia Saprissa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Liberia scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Saprissa has conceded goals in 76% of their last 34 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Liberia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Liberia VS Saprissa
0.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Liberia

(Home)
10 May
Saprissa
2 : 0
Liberia
03 May
Liberia
1 : 1
Saprissa
26 Apr
Liberia
2 : 1
Alajuelense
22 Apr
Sporting FC
0 : 1
Liberia
18 Apr
Liberia
1 : 0
Cartagines
Page 1 of 6

Saprissa

(Away)
20 Sept
Saprissa
2 : 0
Herediano
17 Sept
Cartagines
3 : 2
Saprissa
13 Sept
Sporting FC
4 : 2
Saprissa
10 Sept
Saprissa
2 : 2
Cartagines
06 Sept
Alajuelense
0 : 2
Saprissa
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Herediano 1
Cartagines 0
Saprissa 3
Liberia 1
Final
Herediano 3
Saprissa 2