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Stadium Background

Liberia vs Saprissa

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceno, Liberia
Liberia Logo

Liberia

0 - 1
FT
Saprissa Logo

Saprissa

Our Tip

Match Events

31'
Reyes C.
51'
Johnson S.
51'
Paradela L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Saprissa in this Primera Division 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Saprissa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Liberia
15%
Draws
51%
Saprissa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Saprissa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Saprissa have won more games recently than Liberia.
  • Win probability leans Saprissa's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Primera Division 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Liberia Clean Sheet 16%
Saprissa Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Liberia Saprissa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 22
Draws 7 3
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 1.17 2.27
Goals Conceded 1.3 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.46
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Primera Division
Saprissa vs Liberia
2:0
May 3, 2026 Primera Division
Liberia vs Saprissa
1:1
Apr 12, 2026 Primera Division
Saprissa vs Liberia
1:2
Mar 29, 2026 Copa Costa Rica
Saprissa vs Liberia
5:1
Mar 26, 2026 Copa Costa Rica
Liberia vs Saprissa
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Liberia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Saprissa Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.33
Avg xA / game 0.81

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Liberia 23 / 100
Saprissa 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Liberia Saprissa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Saprissa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Liberia scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Saprissa has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Liberia remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Liberia VS Saprissa
1 Goals Scored 2.13
0.8 Goals Conceded 0.88
60% Over 1.5 100%
20% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Liberia

(Home)
10 May
Saprissa
2 : 0
Liberia
03 May
Liberia
1 : 1
Saprissa
26 Apr
Liberia
2 : 1
Alajuelense
22 Apr
Sporting FC
0 : 1
Liberia
18 Apr
Liberia
1 : 0
Cartagines
Page 1 of 6

Saprissa

(Away)
16 Aug
Saprissa
3 : 2
Cartagines
12 Aug
Saprissa
3 : 0
Deportivo Mixco
09 Aug
Puntarenas FC
0 : 2
Saprissa
06 Aug
Saprissa
2 : 1
Alianza
02 Aug
Saprissa
2 : 1
San Carlos
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Herediano 18 12 2 4 26:10 38
2 Saprissa 18 10 4 4 34:19 34
3 Liberia 18 10 3 5 24:18 33
4 Cartagines 18 10 2 6 26:20 32
5 Alajuelense 18 7 5 6 28:20 26
6 Sporting FC 18 6 4 8 16:21 22
7 San Carlos 18 6 3 9 21:25 21
8 Puntarenas FC 18 4 4 10 22:29 16
9 Zeledon 18 2 8 8 19:30 14
10 Guadalupe 18 3 5 10 13:37 14
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)