Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion

Paraguay Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Tigo La Huerta
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Villalba E.
31'
Benitez A.
38' Event
Melgarejo L.
Assist: Fretes A.

AI Match Summary

Libertad Asuncion in this Copa de Primera matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Libertad Asuncion.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Libertad Asuncion
11%
Draws
80%
Nacional Asuncion
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Nacional Asuncion

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Nacional Asuncion lately — more wins on the board than Libertad Asuncion.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Nacional Asuncion taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Copa de Primera fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Libertad Asuncion Clean Sheet 15%
Nacional Asuncion Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Libertad Asuncion Nacional Asuncion
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 13
Draws 4 11
Losses 16 6
Goals Scored 1.5 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.75 0.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.29
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.71

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion
2:1
Mar 18, 2026 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion
2:1
Sep 27, 2025 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion
3:1
Jul 19, 2025 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion
0:1
Apr 11, 2025 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Libertad Asuncion Compare

Top Goalscorer Melgarejo L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Nacional Asuncion Compare

Top Goalscorer Valdez I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.17
Avg xA / game 0.72

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Libertad Asuncion 11 / 100
Nacional Asuncion 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Libertad Asuncion Nacional Asuncion

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Libertad Asuncion's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Nacional Asuncion conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Libertad Asuncion went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Libertad Asuncion VS Nacional Asuncion
1.5 Goals Scored 1.29
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.71
75% Over 1.5 71%
63% Over 2.5 43%
50% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Olimpia Asuncion22154337:1749
2Nacional Asuncion22109331:2239
3Cerro Porteno22115630:2238
4Sportivo Ameliano2289527:2133
5Sportivo Trinidense2288630:2432
6Libertad Asuncion2294934:2631
7Guarani2278727:2329
8Recoleta22841035:3228
9Rubio Nu22651115:2623
102 de Mayo22571018:3522
11Sp. Luqueno22551224:3320
12San Lorenzo22361314:4115