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Libertad Asuncion vs San Lorenzo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Paraguay Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Tigo La Huerta, Asunción
Libertad Asuncion Logo

Libertad Asuncion

5 - 0
FT
San Lorenzo Logo

San Lorenzo

Our Tip

Match Events

11'
25' Event
Molinas A.
29' Event
Melgarejo L.
Assist: Fretes A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 5-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Libertad Asuncion
30%
Draws
23%
San Lorenzo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Libertad Asuncion

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Libertad Asuncion lately — more wins on the board than San Lorenzo.
  • Model gives Libertad Asuncion a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Libertad Asuncion have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Libertad Asuncion, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Libertad Asuncion here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Libertad Asuncion Clean Sheet 68%
San Lorenzo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Libertad Asuncion San Lorenzo
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 5
Draws 4 7
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.41 0.61
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 24, 2026 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs San Lorenzo
1:0
May 1, 2026 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs San Lorenzo
5:0
Mar 2, 2026 Copa de Primera
San Lorenzo vs Libertad Asuncion
0:7
Sep 20, 2023 Copa Paraguay
San Lorenzo vs Libertad Asuncion
1:2
Jul 27, 2022 Copa Paraguay
San Lorenzo vs Libertad Asuncion
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Libertad Asuncion Compare

Top Goalscorer Melgarejo L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Molinas A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

San Lorenzo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Libertad Asuncion 77 / 100
San Lorenzo 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Libertad Asuncion San Lorenzo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Libertad Asuncion Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Attacking prowess: Libertad Asuncion scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

San Lorenzo let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Libertad Asuncion went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Libertad Asuncion VS San Lorenzo
1.38 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Libertad Asuncion

(Home)
05 Oct
Recoleta
1 : 2
Libertad Asuncion
28 Sept
Libertad Asuncion
0 : 1
Olimpia Asuncion
23 Sept
Fernando de la Mora
1 : 2
Libertad Asuncion
19 Sept
Libertad Asuncion
1 : 1
Sportivo Ameliano
11 Sept
2 de Mayo
0 : 2
Libertad Asuncion
Page 1 of 6

San Lorenzo

(Away)
03 Oct
Guarani
1 : 1
San Lorenzo
28 Sept
San Lorenzo
0 : 0
Recoleta
23 Sept
San Lorenzo
2 : 1
4 de Mayo
20 Sept
San Lorenzo
0 : 3
Olimpia Asuncion
11 Sept
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 0
San Lorenzo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Olimpia Asuncion 22 15 4 3 37:17 49
2 Nacional Asuncion 22 10 9 3 31:22 39
3 Cerro Porteno 22 11 5 6 30:22 38
4 Sportivo Ameliano 22 8 9 5 27:21 33
5 Sportivo Trinidense 22 8 8 6 30:24 32
6 Libertad Asuncion 22 9 4 9 34:26 31
7 Guarani 22 7 8 7 27:23 29
8 Recoleta 22 8 4 10 35:32 28
9 Rubio Nu 22 6 5 11 15:26 23
10 2 de Mayo 22 5 7 10 18:35 22
11 Sp. Luqueno 22 5 5 12 24:33 20
12 San Lorenzo 22 3 6 13 14:41 15
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)