Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Libertad Asuncion vs Sp. Luqueno

Paraguay Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Tigo La Huerta
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Diaz E.
46'
Sub
Ramirez I. In: Rojas M.
Out: Ramirez I.
46'
Sub
Diaz E. In: Caballero H.
Out: Diaz E.

AI Match Summary

Libertad Asuncion in this Copa de Primera matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Libertad Asuncion.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Libertad Asuncion
44%
Draws
20%
Sp. Luqueno
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Libertad Asuncion lately — more wins on the board than Sp. Luqueno.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Copa de Primera fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Libertad Asuncion Clean Sheet 16%
Sp. Luqueno Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Libertad Asuncion Sp. Luqueno
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 7
Draws 4 7
Losses 16 16
Goals Scored 1.5 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.14
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.29

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sp. Luqueno vs Libertad Asuncion
2:3
Mar 7, 2026 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs Sp. Luqueno
1:0
Sep 13, 2025 Copa de Primera
Sp. Luqueno vs Libertad Asuncion
1:4
Jul 5, 2025 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs Sp. Luqueno
0:1
May 11, 2025 Copa de Primera
Sp. Luqueno vs Libertad Asuncion
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Libertad Asuncion Compare

Top Goalscorer Molinas A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Sp. Luqueno Compare

Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Libertad Asuncion 36 / 100
Sp. Luqueno 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Libertad Asuncion Sp. Luqueno

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SPO Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sp. Luqueno let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Libertad Asuncion found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Libertad Asuncion stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Libertad Asuncion VS Sp. Luqueno
1.5 Goals Scored 1.14
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.29
75% Over 1.5 71%
63% Over 2.5 71%
50% Over 3.5 14%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Olimpia Asuncion22154337:1749
2Nacional Asuncion22109331:2239
3Cerro Porteno22115630:2238
4Sportivo Ameliano2289527:2133
5Sportivo Trinidense2288630:2432
6Libertad Asuncion2294934:2631
7Guarani2278727:2329
8Recoleta22841035:3228
9Rubio Nu22651115:2623
102 de Mayo22571018:3522
11Sp. Luqueno22551224:3320
12San Lorenzo22361314:4115