Sport Picks

Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne

Libertad

0 - 1

Dep. Cuenca

Our Tip

Match Events

10'

Gonzalez D.

27'

Mosquera I.

46'

Sub

Corozo B. In: Valencia C.

Out: Corozo B.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Libertad and Dep. Cuenca finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Dep. Cuenca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

Libertad

39%

Draws

31%

Dep. Cuenca

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Dep. Cuenca come out ahead of Libertad on wins alone.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
Regular Liga Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%

Libertad Clean Sheet 68%

Dep. Cuenca Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Libertad	Dep. Cuenca
Matches Played	28	28
Wins	5	12
Draws	9	6
Losses	14	10
Goals Scored	0.88	0.75
Goals Conceded	1.38	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Liga Pro

Libertad vs Dep. Cuenca

Possession: 57% - 41% Cards: 1 - 3

0:1

Mar 5, 2026 Copa Sudamericana

Dep. Cuenca vs Libertad

Possession: 48% - 49% Cards: 3 - 1

3:0

Jul 5, 2025 Liga Pro

Libertad vs Dep. Cuenca

Possession: 46% - 58% Cards: 0 - 2

2:1

Mar 8, 2025 Liga Pro

Dep. Cuenca vs Libertad

Possession: 50% - 45% Cards: 0 - 3

0:1

Nov 23, 2024 Liga Pro

Dep. Cuenca vs Libertad

Possession: 60% - 48% Cards: 4 - 3

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Libertad Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Dep. Cuenca Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez D.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Libertad 41 / 100

Dep. Cuenca 31 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Libertad Dep. Cuenca

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LIB Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Libertad's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Dep. Cuenca's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Dep. Cuenca lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Libertad VS Dep. Cuenca

0.88 Goals Scored 0.75

1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88

63% Over 1.5 38%

50% Over 2.5 25%

25% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	18	14	1	3	40:19	43
2	Aucas	18	9	5	4	21:16	32
3	Barcelona SC	18	8	6	4	20:13	30
4	LDU Quito	18	8	4	6	19:14	28
5	Dep. Cuenca	18	8	3	7	18:20	27
6	U. Catolica	18	7	5	6	28:18	26
7	Macara	18	7	5	6	18:18	26
8	Emelec	18	6	6	6	14:17	24
9	Tecnico U.	18	7	2	9	19:19	23
10	Leones del Norte	18	6	5	7	19:19	23
11	Orense	18	6	5	7	22:24	23
12	Guayaquil City	18	6	4	8	16:21	22
13	Mushuc Runa	18	5	6	7	23:27	21
14	Libertad	18	4	6	8	17:25	18
15	Delfin	18	4	5	9	10:18	17
16	Manta	18	3	4	11	7:23	13