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Libertad vs U. Catolica - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja
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Match Events

15'
Canga L.
32'
Chere A.
40' Event
Branda V.
Assist: Valencia C.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Libertad and U. Catolica finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Libertad.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Libertad
20%
Draws
47%
U. Catolica
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: U. Catolica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Libertad haven't matched U. Catolica's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Liga Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Libertad Clean Sheet 12%
U. Catolica Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Libertad U. Catolica
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 14
Draws 7 6
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.1 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 10, 2026 Liga Pro
Libertad vs U. Catolica
2:1
Apr 18, 2026 Liga Pro
U. Catolica vs Libertad
2:0
Nov 21, 2025 Liga Pro
U. Catolica vs Libertad
1:1
Oct 19, 2025 Liga Pro
Libertad vs U. Catolica
1:1
Aug 16, 2025 Liga Pro
U. Catolica vs Libertad
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Libertad Compare

Top Goalscorer Branda V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Caicedo E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

U. Catolica Compare

Top Goalscorer Yanez S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Libertad 30 / 100
U. Catolica 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Libertad U. Catolica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Libertad's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

U. Catolica let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Libertad stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Libertad VS U. Catolica
1.38 Goals Scored 2.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Libertad

(Home)
20 Sept
Emelec
1 : 2
Libertad
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3
Independiente del Valle
07 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 1
Libertad
04 Sept
Libertad
1 : 1
Emelec
30 Aug
Aucas
1 : 0
Libertad
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U. Catolica

(Away)
20 Sept
LDU Quito
2 : 1
U. Catolica
15 Sept
U. Catolica
2 : 1
Orense
10 Sept
Astillero
0 : 1
U. Catolica
06 Sept
Delfin
0 : 1
U. Catolica
03 Sept
U. Catolica
1 : 1
Aucas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)