Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lichtenberg vs Ahrensfelde

World World

Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Gruber J.
20' Event
Gruber J.
21' Event

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly 2025 game between Lichtenberg and Ahrensfelde finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lichtenberg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Lichtenberg
20%
Draws
16%
Ahrensfelde
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lichtenberg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Lichtenberg carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Lichtenberg's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Club Friendly 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Lichtenberg have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Lichtenberg Clean Sheet 68%
Ahrensfelde Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lichtenberg Ahrensfelde
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 18 5
Draws 5 6
Losses 8 19
Goals Scored 2.45 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.74 2.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.98 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2025 Club Friendly
Lichtenberg vs Ahrensfelde
3:1
May 17, 2025 Oberliga NOFV-Nord
Ahrensfelde vs Lichtenberg
1:7
Nov 24, 2024 Oberliga NOFV-Nord
Lichtenberg vs Ahrensfelde
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lichtenberg Compare

Top Goalscorer Gruber J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Reiniger S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.52
Avg xA / game 0.99

Ahrensfelde Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lichtenberg 86 / 100
Ahrensfelde 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lichtenberg Ahrensfelde

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lichtenberg Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lichtenberg scored in 87% of their last 31 games.

Ahrensfelde has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Difficult form: Ahrensfelde registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lichtenberg VS -
2.75 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lichtenberg

(Home)
16 Aug
Klosterfelde
2 : 1
Lichtenberg
08 Aug
Lichtenberg
3 : 2
TSG Neustrelitz
18 Jul
Lichtenberg
1 : 1
Dresden II
12 Jul
Rsv Eintracht
3 : 1
Lichtenberg
08 Jul
Lichtenberg
0 : 9
Hertha Berlin
Page 1 of 7

Ahrensfelde

(Away)
26 Jul
Lichtenberg
3 : 1
Ahrensfelde
16 Jul
Mahlsdorf
1 : 0
Ahrensfelde
13 Jul
Ahrensfelde
0 : 5
Union Berlin
31 May
Ahrensfelde
2 : 2
Rathenow
24 May
Dynamo Schwerin
4 : 0
Ahrensfelde
Page 1 of 6