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Lille vs Le Havre - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 1 Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
03:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lille host Le Havre in the Ligue 1. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Lille have averaged 1.48 scored and 0.9 conceded recently, against Le Havre's 1.2 scored and 1.27 conceded. Head-to-head, Lille have won 3 to Le Havre's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on May 3, 2026, ending 1:1. The numbers (1.63 xG vs 1.00) point toward Lille. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Lille
30%
Draws
29%
Le Havre
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lille

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lille come out ahead of Le Havre on wins alone.
  • Model gives Lille a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Ligue 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Lille Clean Sheet 20%
Le Havre Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lille Le Havre
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 7
Draws 8 11
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.48 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Ligue 1
Lille vs Le Havre
1:1
Nov 30, 2025 Ligue 1
Le Havre vs Lille
0:1
Feb 8, 2025 Ligue 1
Lille vs Le Havre
1:2
Sep 28, 2024 Ligue 1
Le Havre vs Lille
0:3
Feb 17, 2024 Ligue 1
Lille vs Le Havre
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lille 36 / 100
Le Havre 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lille Le Havre

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Le Havre's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Lille scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Lille stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lille VS Le Havre
2.25 Goals Scored 0.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lille

(Home)
20 Sept
Nice
2 : 1
Lille
13 Sept
Lille
2 : 0
Troyes
08 Sept
Lille
2 : 3
Betis
03 Sept
Toulouse
0 : 1
Lille
28 Aug
Lille
2 : 2
PSG
Page 1 of 6

Le Havre

(Away)
02 Oct
Le Havre
6 : 1
Boulogne
19 Sept
Toulouse
3 : 2
Le Havre
12 Sept
Le Havre
0 : 0
Angers
05 Sept
Le Havre
1 : 2
Brest
29 Aug
Lyon
1 : 1
Le Havre
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 8:3 13
2 Lyon 5 3 2 0 10:2 11
3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 8:3 11
4 Lille 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 8:9 10
6 PSG 5 2 2 1 8:7 8
7 Angers 5 2 1 2 6:5 7
8 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 10:10 7
9 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 9:9 6
10 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 7:12 6
11 Brest 5 1 2 2 7:8 5
12 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
13 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 7:9 5
14 Nice 5 1 2 2 3:6 5
15 Lens 5 1 1 3 9:9 4
16 Troyes 5 1 1 3 4:11 4
17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 7:8 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 4:7 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)