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Stadium Background

Lille vs Lens

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Haraldsson H.
Assist: Fernandez-Pardo M.
45'
Thomasson A.
45'
Ngoy N.

AI Match Summary

Lille in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lille.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Lille
28%
Draws
50%
Lens
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Lens

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lens lately — more wins on the board than Lille.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Lens taking it.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Lille have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Lille Clean Sheet 15%
Lens Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lille Lens
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 20
Draws 5 4
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 0.88 2.5
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Ligue 1
Lille vs Lens
3:0
Sep 20, 2025 Ligue 1
Lens vs Lille
3:0
Mar 30, 2025 Ligue 1
Lille vs Lens
1:0
Oct 26, 2024 Ligue 1
Lens vs Lille
0:2
Mar 29, 2024 Ligue 1
Lille vs Lens
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lille Compare

Top Goalscorer Haraldsson H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Correia F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Lens Compare

Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lille 23 / 100
Lens 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lille Lens

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lille found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Lens conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Recent resilience: Lille stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lille VS Lens
0.88 Goals Scored 2.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Lille

(Home)
25 Jul
Royale Union SG
2 : 1
Lille
18 Jul
Lille
3 : 0
RAAL La Louviere
17 May
Lille
0 : 2
Auxerre
10 May
Monaco
0 : 1
Lille
03 May
Lille
1 : 1
Le Havre
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Lens

(Away)
28 Jul
Lens
0 : 1
Famalicao
28 Jul
Crystal Palace
0 : 3
Lens
25 Jul
Lens
2 : 2
Charleroi
18 Jul
Lens
4 : 1
Boulogne
22 May
Lens
3 : 1
Nice
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PSG34244674:2976
2Lens34224866:3570
3Lille34187952:3761
4Lyon341861053:4060
5Marseille341851163:4559
6Rennes34178959:5059
7Monaco341661260:5454
8Strasbourg341581158:4753
9Toulouse341291347:4645
10Lorient3411121148:5145
11Paris FC3411111247:5044
12Brest341091543:5539
13Angers34991629:4836
14Le Havre347141332:4435
15Auxerre348101634:4434
16Nice347111637:6032
17Nantes34592029:5224
18Metz34382332:7617
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)