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Stadium Background

Lille vs Nantes

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Kaba M.
62'
Sub
Leroux L. In: Coquelin F.
Out: Leroux L.
63'
Sub
El Arabi Y. In: Abline M.
Out: El Arabi Y.

AI Match Summary

Lille in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lille.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Lille
20%
Draws
22%
Nantes
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lille

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Lille have won more games recently than Nantes.
  • Win probability leans Lille's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Lille Clean Sheet 68%
Nantes Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lille Nantes
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 6
Draws 7 5
Losses 9 18
Goals Scored 1.31 1.24
Goals Conceded 1 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Ligue 1
Lille vs Nantes
1:0
Oct 19, 2025 Ligue 1
Nantes vs Lille
0:2
Mar 15, 2025 Ligue 1
Nantes vs Lille
1:0
Jan 4, 2025 Ligue 1
Lille vs Nantes
1:1
May 12, 2024 Ligue 1
Nantes vs Lille
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lille Compare

Top Goalscorer Ngoy N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Nantes Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lille 86 / 100
Nantes 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lille Nantes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lille Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lille found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Nantes conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Lille stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lille VS Nantes
2 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lille

(Home)
23 Aug
Angers
0 : 2
Lille
15 Aug
Everton
1 : 1
Lille
08 Aug
Hamburger
2 : 2
Lille
01 Aug
Leuven
3 : 6
Lille
25 Jul
Royale Union SG
2 : 1
Lille
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Nantes

(Away)
22 Aug
Nantes
2 : 5
Rodez
14 Aug
Laval
2 : 1
Nantes
08 Aug
Nantes
0 : 1
Red Star
31 Jul
Nantes
5 : 1
Al Wakra
25 Jul
Le Mans
1 : 0
Nantes
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 34 24 4 6 74:29 76
2 Lens 34 22 4 8 66:35 70
3 Lille 34 18 7 9 52:37 61
4 Lyon 34 18 6 10 53:40 60
5 Marseille 34 18 5 11 63:45 59
6 Rennes 34 17 8 9 59:50 59
7 Monaco 34 16 6 12 60:54 54
8 Strasbourg 34 15 8 11 58:47 53
9 Toulouse 34 12 9 13 47:46 45
10 Lorient 34 11 12 11 48:51 45
11 Paris FC 34 11 11 12 47:50 44
12 Brest 34 10 9 15 43:55 39
13 Angers 34 9 9 16 29:48 36
14 Le Havre 34 7 14 13 32:44 35
15 Auxerre 34 8 10 16 34:44 34
16 Nice 34 7 11 16 37:60 32
17 Nantes 34 5 9 20 29:52 24
18 Metz 34 3 8 23 32:76 17
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)