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Stadium Background

Lille W vs Thonon Evian W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Seconde Ligue Women 2025/2026 Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille
Our Tip

Match Events

43'
Valentino L.
45' Event
Delcroix C.
55' Event
Bouzid W.

AI Match Summary

The Seconde Ligue Women 2025/2026 game between Lille W and Thonon Evian W finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Lille W
35%
Draws
26%
Thonon Evian W
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lille W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Thonon Evian W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Lille W a 39% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Lille W Clean Sheet 68%
Thonon Evian W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lille W Thonon Evian W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 13
Draws 8 6
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1.27 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Seconde Ligue Women
Lille W vs Thonon Evian W
1:1
Sep 21, 2025 Seconde Ligue Women
Thonon Evian W vs Lille W
2:3
Apr 20, 2025 Seconde Ligue Women
Lille W vs Thonon Evian W
1:2
Nov 17, 2024 Seconde Ligue Women
Thonon Evian W vs Lille W
2:0
May 17, 2020 Seconde Ligue Women
Thonon Evian W vs Lille W
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lille W Compare

Top Goalscorer Delcroix C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Thonon Evian W Compare

Top Goalscorer Bouzid W.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lille W 68 / 100
Thonon Evian W 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lille W Thonon Evian W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lille W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Lille W scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Thonon Evian W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Lille W has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lille W VS Thonon Evian W
1.25 Goals Scored 2.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Lille W

(Home)
04 Oct
Lille W
1 : 1
Grenoble W
26 Sept
Strasbourg W
4 : 3
Lille W
20 Sept
Nice W
0 : 0
Lille W
13 Sept
Lille W
2 : 2
Bourges 18 W
06 Sept
Lille W
3 : 2
Auxerre W
Page 1 of 6

Thonon Evian W

(Away)
04 Oct
Cannes W
1 : 0
Thonon Evian W
26 Sept
Marseille W
6 : 1
Thonon Evian W
19 Sept
Thonon Evian W
1 : 2
Metz W
06 Sept
Thonon Evian W
1 : 1
St Etienne W
29 Aug
Thonon Evian W
1 : 0
Toulouse W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Toulouse W 22 15 4 3 48:21 49
2 Saint-Malo W 22 12 4 6 34:28 40
3 Le Mans W 22 12 3 7 28:20 39
4 Auxerre W 22 10 5 7 31:25 35
5 Grenoble W 22 9 7 6 31:24 34
6 Lille W 22 9 5 8 31:25 32
7 Thonon Evian W 22 9 4 9 35:29 31
8 Nice W 22 8 5 9 28:31 29
9 Reims W 22 7 6 9 26:33 27
10 Metz W 22 6 4 12 31:42 22
11 Rodez AF W 22 6 4 12 16:32 22
12 Guingamp W 22 2 3 17 17:46 9
Promotion - Premiere Ligue Women (Main)