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Lillestrom vs Molde - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Norway Norway

Eliteserien Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrøm
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
05:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lillestrom host Molde in the Eliteserien. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Recent numbers: Lillestrom at 1.48 goals for, 1.26 against; Molde at 2.55 for, 1.45 against. Head-to-head, Lillestrom have won 1 to Molde's 4, with 0 draws. They last met on Apr 6, 2026, ending 0:1. The numbers (1.38 xG vs 2.56) point toward Molde. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Lillestrom
15%
Draws
49%
Molde
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Molde

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Molde carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Molde are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Eliteserien form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Molde have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Lillestrom Clean Sheet 10%
Molde Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lillestrom Molde
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 15 16
Draws 3 3
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.48 2.55
Goals Conceded 1.26 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Eliteserien
Molde vs Lillestrom
0:1
Oct 6, 2024 NM Cup
Lillestrom vs Molde
1:2
Aug 11, 2024 Eliteserien
Lillestrom vs Molde
1:2
Jul 7, 2024 Eliteserien
Molde vs Lillestrom
3:0
Nov 12, 2023 Eliteserien
Molde vs Lillestrom
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lillestrom 18 / 100
Molde 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lillestrom Molde

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Molde Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Lillestrom scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.

Molde's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Lillestrom remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lillestrom VS Molde
1.5 Goals Scored 4
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Lillestrom

(Home)
01 Oct
Baerum
1 : 5
Lillestrom
20 Sept
Viking
3 : 0
Lillestrom
17 Sept
Lillestrom
1 : 2
Torreense
12 Sept
Lillestrom
2 : 0
Valerenga
05 Sept
Brann
1 : 2
Lillestrom
Page 1 of 7

Molde

(Away)
19 Sept
Molde
1 : 2
Aalesund
16 Sept
Trygg/Lade
0 : 5
Molde
13 Sept
Ham-Kam
1 : 5
Molde
06 Sept
Molde
2 : 0
KFUM Oslo
30 Aug
Valerenga
3 : 4
Molde
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Viking 21 16 2 3 54:20 50
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 16 2 3 53:19 50
3 Tromso 21 11 5 5 40:29 38
4 Molde 21 11 3 7 44:32 36
5 Rosenborg 21 10 3 8 39:30 33
6 Lillestrom 21 10 2 9 28:29 32
7 Brann 21 9 2 10 39:32 29
8 Fredrikstad 21 8 4 9 25:32 28
9 Sarpsborg 08 21 6 7 8 24:29 25
10 KFUM Oslo 21 7 4 10 25:35 25
11 Sandefjord 21 6 5 10 21:27 23
12 Valerenga 21 6 5 10 34:43 23
13 Ham-Kam 21 6 5 10 29:44 23
14 Aalesund 21 4 9 8 33:46 21
15 Kristiansund 21 5 4 12 21:40 19
16 Start 21 4 4 13 22:44 16
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen 2027 (Main)