Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Linfield vs Dungannon

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

NIFL Premiership 2025/2026 Windsor Park, Belfast
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Fitzpatrick M.
46'
Sub
Dillon K. In: Mitchell A.
Out: Dillon K.
60'
Mulgrew J.

AI Match Summary

Linfield in this NIFL Premiership 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Linfield
20%
Draws
28%
Dungannon
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Linfield

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Dungannon average 1.59 goals a game right now, well clear of Linfield's 1.45.
  • Linfield are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Linfield, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Linfield have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Linfield Clean Sheet 20%
Dungannon Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Linfield Dungannon
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 15 15
Draws 4 3
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.45 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Dungannon vs Linfield
0:1
May 12, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Linfield vs Dungannon
3:1
Apr 7, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Dungannon vs Linfield
1:3
Feb 17, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Dungannon vs Linfield
1:4
Feb 10, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Linfield vs Dungannon
6:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Linfield Compare

Top Goalscorer Fitzpatrick M.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Dungannon Compare

Top Goalscorer Moore K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Linfield 49 / 100
Dungannon 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Linfield Dungannon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Linfield Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Linfield remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Linfield's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Dungannon let in goals in 69% of their last 32 matches.

Scoring Trends

Linfield VS Dungannon
1.88 Goals Scored 1.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Linfield

(Home)
19 Sept
Linfield
1 : 0
Crusaders
15 Sept
Portadown
1 : 1
Linfield
12 Sept
Dungannon
0 : 1
Linfield
05 Sept
Linfield
1 : 0
Carrick Rangers
29 Aug
Limavady
0 : 2
Linfield
Page 1 of 6

Dungannon

(Away)
19 Sept
Dungannon
1 : 1
Ballymena
15 Sept
Crusaders
3 : 0
Dungannon
12 Sept
Dungannon
0 : 1
Linfield
05 Sept
Limavady
0 : 2
Dungannon
29 Aug
Cliftonville
0 : 2
Dungannon
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Linfield -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Cliftonville -
TBD -
Dungannon 3
Carrick Rangers 1
Semi-finals
Linfield -
TBD -
Cliftonville 1
Dungannon 2
Final
Linfield 3
Dungannon 1