Sport Picks
Linfield vs Wellington Rec
Northern Ireland
Irish Cup 2024/2025 Windsor Park, Belfast 
Match Events
18'
18'
Fitzpatrick M.
42'
42'
McDaid R.
77'
77'
Fitzpatrick M.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 4-0, with Linfield advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
69%
15%
16%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Linfield
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
69%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Linfield come out ahead of Wellington Rec on wins alone.
- Model gives Linfield a 69% chance of winning this.
- Linfield have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Linfield, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Linfield Clean Sheet 16%
Wellington Rec Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Linfield | Wellington Rec |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 20 |
| Wins | 17 | 10 |
| Draws | 4 | 0 |
| Losses | 10 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.58 | 2.05 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.10 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 4, 2025 Irish Cup
Linfield vs Wellington Rec
4:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Linfield Compare
Top Goalscorer Fitzpatrick M.
3 Goals Assists Leader McDaid R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55
Wellington Rec Compare
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Linfield 84 / 100
Wellington Rec 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Linfield Wellington Rec
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Linfield Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Linfield remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Linfield found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).
Wellington Rec's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 19 matches.
Scoring Trends
Linfield VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
2 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Linfield
(Home) 25 Sept
Coleraine
1 : 3 Linfield
19 Sept
Linfield
1 : 0 Crusaders
15 Sept
Portadown
1 : 1 Linfield
12 Sept
Dungannon
0 : 1 Linfield
05 Sept
Linfield
1 : 0 Carrick Rangers
Page 1 of 7
19 Sept
Linfield
1 : 0 Crusaders
05 Sept
Linfield
1 : 0 Carrick Rangers
21 Aug
Linfield
1 : 0 Cliftonville
15 Aug
Linfield
2 : 1 Glentoran
08 Aug
Linfield
0 : 3 Ballymena
Page 1 of 4
Wellington Rec
(Away) 15 Jul
Wellington Rec
0 : 4 Crusaders
04 Jan
Linfield
4 : 0 Wellington Rec
23 Nov
Wellington Rec
: Dergview
29 Sept
Lisburn Distillery
2 : 0 Wellington Rec
30 Sept
St. Patricks Young
3 : 2 Wellington Rec
Page 1 of 4
04 Jan
Linfield
4 : 0 Wellington Rec
29 Sept
Lisburn Distillery
2 : 0 Wellington Rec
30 Sept
St. Patricks Young
3 : 2 Wellington Rec
20 Aug
Dunloy
3 : 0 Wellington Rec
05 Dec
Harland & Wolff
3 : 2 Wellington Rec
Page 1 of 2
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Knockbreda 3
Banbridge 0
TBD -
Crusaders -
Limavady -
TBD -
TBD -
Larne -
Cliftonville -
TBD -
Banbridge Rangers 2
Queens University 1
Glenavon -
TBD -
TBD -
Dundela -
Portstewart 0
Belfast Celtic 1
Moyola 1
St. James' Swifts 0
Ballymena -
TBD -
TBD -
Ards -
Lurgan Town Boys 0
Dollingstown 1
TBD -
Ballyclare -
Institute -
TBD -
TBD -
Loughgall -
Bangor FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Newington FC -
Annagh -
TBD -
TBD -
Portadown -
Harland & Wolff -
TBD -
TBD -
Glentoran -
Linfield -
TBD -
Wellington Rec -
Dergview -
Islandmagee 0
Ballymacash 4
TBD -
Ballinamallard -
Carrick Rangers -
TBD -
TBD -
Newry City -
Dungannon -
TBD -
Rosario Youth 2
Rathfriland Rangers 4
Coleraine -
TBD -
TBD -
Armagh -
1/16-finals
Knockbreda 0
Crusaders 3
Limavady 1
Larne 0
Cliftonville 4
Banbridge Rangers 0
Glenavon 2
Dundela 0
Belfast Celtic 0
Moyola 1
Ballymena 1
Ards 2
Dollingstown 1
Ballyclare 0
Institute 2
Loughgall 3
Bangor FC 2
Newington FC 1
Annagh 3
Portadown 2
Harland & Wolff 2
Glentoran 4
Linfield 4
Wellington Rec 0
Ballymacash 1
Ballinamallard 2
Carrick Rangers 4
Newry City 3
Dungannon 5
Rathfriland Rangers 0
Coleraine 5
Armagh 0
1/8-finals
Crusaders 1
Limavady 0
Cliftonville 3
Glenavon 2
Moyola 1
Ards 3
Dollingstown 0
Loughgall 3
Bangor FC 3
Annagh 0
Glentoran 2
Linfield 1
Ballinamallard 0
Carrick Rangers 3
Dungannon 2
Coleraine 1
Quarter-finals
Crusaders 1
Cliftonville 2
Ards 2
Loughgall 0
Bangor FC 3
Glentoran 1
Carrick Rangers 1
Dungannon 3
Semi-finals
Cliftonville 3
Ards 0
Bangor FC 0
Dungannon 2
Final
Cliftonville 1
Dungannon 2
