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Lithuania vs Kosovo

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lithuania play Kosovo in the UEFA Nations League 2024/2025. Kosovo are favorites here. Recently, Lithuania averaged 0.82 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Kosovo averaged 1.57 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. In past meetings, Lithuania won 0, Kosovo won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 18, 2024 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Lithuania and 1.50 for Kosovo. This points to a Kosovo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Lithuania
15%
Draws
62%
Kosovo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kosovo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Lithuania picked up more points recently compared to Kosovo.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Lithuania Clean Sheet 16%
Kosovo Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lithuania Kosovo
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 6 16
Draws 5 4
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 0.82 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 18, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Kosovo vs Lithuania
1:0
Oct 12, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Lithuania vs Kosovo
1:2
Mar 24, 2021 Friendly International
Kosovo vs Lithuania
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lithuania Compare

Top Goalscorer Golubickas P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Kosovo Compare

Top Goalscorer Zhegrova E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Krasniqi E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lithuania 24 / 100
Kosovo 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lithuania Kosovo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kosovo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Kosovo & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +53.4%
6.67
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.2%
2.22
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Lithuania attacking → ← attacking Kosovo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lithuania scored in 57% of their last 28 games.

Kosovo let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.67 goals.

Lithuania went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Kosovo lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

European tournament. Big stakes for both clubs, so expect a tense, high-pressure match.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

23 Points in last 5 52
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sweden651019:416
2Slovakia641110:513
3Estonia61143:94
4Azerbaijan60153:171
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Romania660018:318
2Kosovo640210:712
3Cyprus62044:156
4Lithuania60064:110
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Northern Ireland632111:311
2Bulgaria62313:69
3Belarus61413:47
4Luxembourg60333:73
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1North Macedonia651010:116
2Armenia62138:97
3Faroe Islands61325:66
4Latvia61144:114