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World

World Championship 2026 S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas

Netherlands

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Lithuania play Netherlands in the World Championship 2026. Netherlands are favorites here. Recently, Lithuania averaged 0.82 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Netherlands averaged 2.37 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Lithuania won 0, Netherlands won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 17, 2025 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.81 for Lithuania and 2.06 for Netherlands. This points to a Netherlands double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%

Lithuania

24%

Draws

56%

Netherlands

Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Netherlands

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

86% / Very High Confidence

Lithuania picked up more points recently compared to Netherlands.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.81 vs 2.06 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 80%

Over 2.5 Goals 58%

Over 3.5 Goals 35%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%

Lithuania Clean Sheet 10%

Netherlands Clean Sheet 18%

First Half Goal 72%

Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Lithuania	Netherlands
Matches Played	28	30
Wins	6	15
Draws	5	9
Losses	17	6
Goals Scored	0.82	2.37
Goals Conceded	1.5	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 17, 2025 World Championship

Netherlands vs Lithuania

Possession: 58% - 53% Cards: 1 - 1

4:0

Sep 7, 2025 World Championship

Lithuania vs Netherlands

Possession: 59% - 57% Cards: 2 - 3

2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lithuania Compare

Top Goalscorer Gineitis G.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Girdvainis E.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Netherlands Compare

Top Goalscorer Depay M.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Timber Q.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.16

Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lithuania 20 / 100

Netherlands 54 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Lithuania Netherlands

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Netherlands Win (2)

Secondary Pick Netherlands & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +66.6%

8.33

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.4%

1.92

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Lithuania attacking → ← attacking Netherlands

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lithuania scored in 57% of their last 28 games.

Netherlands let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Lithuania went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Netherlands lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

23 Points in last 5 54

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 2.38

1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Germany	6	5	1	16:3	15
2	Slovakia	6	4	2	6:8	12
3	Northern Ireland	6	3	3	7:6	9
4	Luxembourg	6	0	6	1:13	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	6	4	2	0	14:2	14
2	Kosovo	6	3	2	1	6:5	11
3	Slovenia	6	0	4	2	3:8	4
4	Sweden	6	0	2	4	4:12	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Scotland	6	4	1	1	13:7	13
2	Denmark	6	3	2	1	16:7	11
3	Greece	6	2	1	3	10:12	7
4	Belarus	6	0	2	4	4:17	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	France	6	5	1	0	16:4	16
2	Ukraine	6	3	1	2	10:11	10
3	Iceland	6	2	1	3	13:11	7
4	Azerbaijan	6	0	1	5	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spain	6	5	1	0	21:2	16
2	Turkey	6	4	1	1	17:12	13
3	Georgia	6	1	0	5	7:15	3
4	Bulgaria	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugal	6	4	1	1	20:7	13
2	Ireland	6	3	1	2	9:7	10
3	Hungary	6	2	2	2	11:10	8
4	Armenia	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	8	6	2	0	27:4	20
2	Poland	8	5	2	1	14:7	17
3	Finland	8	3	1	4	8:14	10
4	Malta	8	1	2	5	4:19	5
5	Lithuania	8	0	3	5	6:15	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Austria	8	6	1	1	22:4	19
2	Bosnia & Herzegovina	8	5	2	1	17:7	17
3	Romania	8	4	1	3	19:10	13
4	Cyprus	8	2	2	4	11:11	8
5	San Marino	8	0	0	8	2:39	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Norway	8	8	0	0	37:5	24
2	Italy	8	6	0	2	21:12	18
3	Israel	8	4	0	4	19:20	12
4	Estonia	8	1	1	6	8:21	4
5	Moldova	8	0	1	7	5:32	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	8	5	3	0	29:7	18
2	Wales	8	5	1	2	21:11	16
3	North Macedonia	8	3	4	1	13:10	13
4	Kazakhstan	8	2	2	4	9:13	8
5	Liechtenstein	8	0	0	8	0:31	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	England	8	8	0	0	22:0	24
2	Albania	8	4	2	2	7:5	14
3	Serbia	8	4	1	3	9:10	13
4	Latvia	8	1	2	5	5:15	5
5	Andorra	8	0	1	7	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Croatia	8	7	1	0	26:4	22
2	Czech Republic	8	5	1	2	18:8	16
3	Faroe Islands	8	4	0	4	11:9	12
4	Montenegro	8	3	0	5	8:17	9
5	Gibraltar	8	0	0	8	3:28	0