Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Liverpool M. vs CA Cerro Prediction & H2H Stats

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Belvedere, Montevideo
Liverpool M. Logo

Liverpool M.

1 - 2
FT
CA Cerro Logo

CA Cerro

Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Laquidain S.
20'
Aleman B.
21' Event
Miranda A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Liverpool M. and CA Cerro finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CA Cerro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Liverpool M.
20%
Draws
23%
CA Cerro
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Liverpool M.

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Liverpool M. carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Liverpool M. a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Liverpool M. Clean Sheet 68%
CA Cerro Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Liverpool M. CA Cerro
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 9
Draws 9 5
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 1.38 0.82
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs CA Cerro
4:0
Jul 12, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs CA Cerro
1:2
Feb 20, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Liverpool M.
1:1
Aug 24, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Liverpool M.
2:1
May 25, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs CA Cerro
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Liverpool M. Compare

Top Goalscorer Bentancourt R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

CA Cerro Compare

Top Goalscorer Miranda A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Amaro J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Liverpool M. 59 / 100
CA Cerro 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Liverpool M. CA Cerro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Liverpool M. Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Liverpool M. scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: CA Cerro conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Liverpool M. went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Liverpool M. VS CA Cerro
1.25 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Liverpool M.

(Home)
03 Oct
Liverpool M.
3 : 2
Progreso
27 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 2
Liverpool M.
23 Sept
Liverpool M.
3 : 0
Colon
20 Sept
Liverpool M.
0 : 0
Racing Montevideo
14 Sept
Montevideo City
3 : 1
Liverpool M.
Page 1 of 6

CA Cerro

(Away)
27 Sept
Juventud
0 : 0
CA Cerro
23 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2
Maldonado
19 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2
Penarol
13 Sept
Progreso
1 : 3
CA Cerro
10 Sept
CA Cerro
0 : 2
Cerrito
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Penarol 7 5 1 1 12:3 16
2 Cerro Largo 7 3 2 2 7:5 11
3 Racing Montevideo 7 2 4 1 4:3 10
4 Liverpool M. 7 2 3 2 5:5 9
5 Central Esp. 7 2 3 2 4:4 9
6 CA Cerro 7 3 0 4 6:10 9
7 Defensor Sp. 7 1 3 3 6:9 6
8 Boston River 7 1 2 4 5:10 5
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wanderers 7 4 3 0 12:4 15
2 Club Nacional 7 4 1 2 8:8 13
3 Maldonado 7 3 3 1 12:6 12
4 Montevideo City 7 4 0 3 11:11 12
5 Juventud 7 2 2 3 8:11 8
6 Albion 7 1 3 3 6:8 6
7 Progreso 7 2 0 5 6:11 6
8 Danubio 7 0 4 3 5:9 4
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)