Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 Stadio Armando Picchi

Fezzanese

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Livorno play Fezzanese in the Serie D - Group E 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Livorno averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.48 conceded. Fezzanese averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. In past meetings, Livorno won 2, Fezzanese won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 19, 2025 ended 5:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.42 for Livorno and 1.25 for Fezzanese. This points to a Livorno double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%

Livorno

22%

Draws

24%

Fezzanese

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Livorno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence

Livorno picked up more points recently compared to Fezzanese.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.42 vs 1.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 61%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 61%

Over 3.5 Goals 37%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61%

Livorno Clean Sheet 19%

Fezzanese Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 74%

Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Livorno	Fezzanese
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	11	6
Draws	6	7
Losses	12	17
Goals Scored	1.38	1.03
Goals Conceded	1.48	1.8

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 19, 2025 Serie D - Group E

Livorno vs Fezzanese

Possession: 56% - 50% Cards: 1 - 2

5:3

Sep 22, 2024 Serie D - Group E

Fezzanese vs Livorno

Possession: 48% - 54% Cards: 4 - 3

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Livorno Compare

Top Goalscorer Frati M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Luci A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Fezzanese Compare

Top Goalscorer Ngom M. B.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Mariotti L.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Livorno 52 / 100

Fezzanese 24 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Livorno Fezzanese

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Livorno Win (1)

Secondary Pick Livorno & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +17.2%

2.17

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11%

1.82

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Livorno attacking → ← attacking Fezzanese

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Livorno scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Fezzanese let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 5.50 goals.

Livorno went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Fezzanese lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 25

1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Livorno	34	21	9	4	74:44	72
2	Fulgens Foligno	34	17	9	8	61:44	60
3	Seravezza Pozzi	34	16	11	7	53:39	59
4	Ghiviborgo	34	17	4	13	65:57	55
5	Orvietana	34	15	8	11	44:41	53
6	Siena	34	14	10	10	35:32	52
7	Grosseto	34	13	11	10	39:34	50
8	Ostiamare	34	12	9	13	49:53	45
9	Poggibonsi	34	12	7	15	32:36	43
10	San Donato Tavarnelle	34	11	10	13	26:26	43
11	Montevarchi	34	9	14	11	36:39	41
12	Flaminia	34	10	10	14	42:43	40
13	Follonica Gavorrano	34	10	10	14	40:45	40
14	Terranuova Traiana	34	8	15	11	34:47	39
15	Figline	34	9	11	14	29:33	38
16	Sporting Trestina	34	9	11	14	35:45	38
17	Sangiovannese	34	9	9	16	30:38	36
18	Fezzanese	34	6	8	20	35:63	26