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Livorno vs Vado - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group B Stadio Armando Picchi, Livorno
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Malagrida L.
12' Event
Vita D.
(Penalty)
21' Event
Ferro M.
Assist: Hamlili Z.

AI Match Summary

Livorno in this Serie C - Group B matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Livorno.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Livorno
20%
Draws
29%
Vado
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Livorno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Livorno haven't matched Vado's recent run of results.
  • Livorno are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Serie C - Group B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Livorno Clean Sheet 68%
Vado Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Livorno Vado
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 12 13
Draws 7 6
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.3 1.68
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Serie C - Group B
Livorno vs Vado
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Livorno Compare

Top Goalscorer Malagrida L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Aramu M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Vado Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferro M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Livorno 95 / 100
Vado 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Livorno Vado

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Livorno Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Livorno found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (27 games).

Vado has conceded goals in 61% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: Livorno remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Livorno VS Vado
1.38 Goals Scored 0.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Livorno

(Home)
03 Oct
Livorno
0 : 1
Pescara
26 Sept
Livorno
3 : 2
Pianese
21 Sept
Guidonia 1937
1 : 1
Livorno
16 Sept
Livorno
3 : 2
Vado
12 Sept
Spezia
2 : 0
Livorno
Page 1 of 6

Vado

(Away)
03 Oct
Vado
1 : 0
Forli FC
26 Sept
Sassari Torres
0 : 0
Vado
20 Sept
Vado
0 : 1
Pescara
16 Sept
Livorno
3 : 2
Vado
12 Sept
Vado
0 : 1
Campobasso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spezia 8 7 1 0 15:4 22
2 Ravenna 8 5 2 1 13:4 17
3 Grosseto 8 4 3 1 14:7 15
4 Reggiana 8 4 2 2 12:7 14
5 Livorno 8 4 2 2 10:9 14
6 Perugia 8 4 1 3 9:12 13
7 Guidonia 1937 8 3 3 2 10:7 12
8 Campobasso 8 3 3 2 12:11 12
9 Sassari Torres 8 3 3 2 9:9 12
10 Pescara 8 3 2 3 10:11 11
11 Forli FC 8 2 4 2 13:12 10
12 Atalanta U23 6 3 0 3 7:9 9
13 Ostiamare 8 2 2 4 9:10 8
14 Vado 8 2 2 4 6:8 8
15 Pineto 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
16 Gubbio 8 2 1 5 10:16 7
17 Latina 7 1 3 3 6:9 6
18 Pianese 8 1 3 4 6:10 6
19 Sambenedettese 8 1 2 5 11:14 5
20 Vis Pesaro 7 1 1 5 8:16 4
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)