Sport Picks

Poland

III Liga - Group IV 2022/2023

Chelmianka Chelm

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

LKS Lagow play Chelmianka Chelm in the III Liga - Group IV 2022/2023. Chelmianka Chelm are favorites here. Recently, LKS Lagow averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.07 conceded. Chelmianka Chelm averaged 1.86 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, LKS Lagow won 1, Chelmianka Chelm won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 10, 2023 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.17 for LKS Lagow and 1.61 for Chelmianka Chelm. This points to a Chelmianka Chelm double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%

LKS Lagow

15%

Draws

56%

Chelmianka Chelm

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Chelmianka Chelm

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence

LKS Lagow picked up more points recently compared to Chelmianka Chelm.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.17 vs 1.61 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 71%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 83%

Over 2.5 Goals 71%

Over 3.5 Goals 43%

Over 4.5 Goals 21%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%

LKS Lagow Clean Sheet 14%

Chelmianka Chelm Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 75%

Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	LKS Lagow	Chelmianka Chelm
Matches Played	30	42
Wins	10	22
Draws	2	12
Losses	18	8
Goals Scored	0.8	1.86
Goals Conceded	2.07	1.17

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 10, 2023 III Liga - Group IV

LKS Lagow vs Chelmianka Chelm

Possession: 53% - 54% Cards: 1 - 1

0:3

Nov 12, 2022 III Liga - Group IV

Chelmianka Chelm vs LKS Lagow

Possession: 59% - 57% Cards: 2 - 3

1:2

May 7, 2022 III Liga - Group IV

LKS Lagow vs Chelmianka Chelm

Possession: 46% - 44% Cards: 4 - 0

1:2

Oct 2, 2021 III Liga - Group IV

Chelmianka Chelm vs LKS Lagow

Possession: 55% - 54% Cards: 2 - 3

1:0

Mar 21, 2021 III Liga - Group IV

LKS Lagow vs Chelmianka Chelm

Possession: 40% - 49% Cards: 1 - 2

0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

LKS Lagow 29 / 100

Chelmianka Chelm 53 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

LKS Lagow Chelmianka Chelm

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chelmianka Chelm Win (2)

Secondary Pick Chelmianka Chelm & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +38%

4.76

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.3%

1.54

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

LKS Lagow attacking → ← attacking Chelmianka Chelm

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

LKS Lagow scored in 40% of their last 30 games.

Chelmianka Chelm let in goals in 71% of their last 42 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

LKS Lagow went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Chelmianka Chelm lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low

Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

32 Points in last 5 78

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.13

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Stal Stalowa Wola	34	23	5	6	72:27	74
2	Avia Swidnik	34	19	11	4	58:26	68
3	KS Wieczysta Krakow	34	20	7	7	75:35	67
4	Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski	34	17	7	10	61:36	58
5	Biala Podlaska	34	14	13	7	63:42	55
6	Cracovia II	34	16	6	12	69:48	54
7	Wisloka Debica	34	15	7	12	54:46	52
8	Sokol Sieniawa	34	14	6	14	57:65	48
9	Czarni Polaniec	34	15	2	17	47:58	47
10	Podhale Nowy Targ	34	13	6	15	59:47	45
11	Orleta Radzyn	34	13	4	17	44:63	43
12	Chelmianka Chelm	34	10	10	14	45:47	40
13	Unia Tarnow	34	10	10	14	43:66	40
14	Wiazownica	34	11	7	16	49:59	40
15	Korona Kielce II	34	10	9	15	63:58	39
16	Sandomierz	34	7	6	21	40:91	27
17	Lublinianka	34	7	2	25	43:92	23
18	LKS Lagow	34	11	4	19	27:63	37