Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 2-0. The second leg ended 2-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Baglan Dragons
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Baglan Dragons haven't matched Llantwit Major's recent run of results.
- Baglan Dragons are the model's pick here, at 70%.
- Llantwit Major have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Baglan Dragons, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Llantwit Major Clean Sheet 14%
Baglan Dragons Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Llantwit Major | Baglan Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 8 |
| Draws | 8 | 6 |
| Losses | 12 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.41 | 0.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.79 | 1.73 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 15, 2026 Cymru South
Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons
0:1
Jan 3, 2026 Cymru South
Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons
0:0
Oct 4, 2025 Cymru South
Baglan Dragons vs Llantwit Major
1:1
Sep 20, 2025 FAW Welsh Cup
Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons
2:0
Mar 8, 2025 Cymru South
Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons
0:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Llantwit Major 15 / 100
Baglan Dragons 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Llantwit Major Baglan Dragons
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Baglan Dragons Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Llantwit Major scored in 79% of their last 29 games.
Defensive concern: Baglan Dragons conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.
Difficult form: Baglan Dragons registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
These sides typically produce 1.20 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Llantwit Major VS Baglan Dragons
0.88 Goals Scored 0.75
2.5 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Llantwit Major
(Home) 26 Sept
Llantwit Major
2 : 0 Llanelli
12 Sept
Treowen
1 : 1 Llantwit Major
22 Aug
Aberystwyth
5 : 1 Llantwit Major
15 Aug
Llantwit Major
0 : 1 Baglan Dragons
07 Aug
Afan Lido
5 : 0 Llantwit Major
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Llantwit Major
2 : 0 Llanelli
15 Aug
Llantwit Major
0 : 1 Baglan Dragons
01 Aug
Llantwit Major
0 : 3 Pure Swansea
18 Apr
Llantwit Major
1 : 3 Cambrian United
28 Mar
Llantwit Major
1 : 4 Caerau Ely
Page 1 of 3
Baglan Dragons
(Away) 25 Sept
Baglan Dragons
1 : 2 Carmarthen Town
12 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 1 Baglan Dragons
04 Sept
Baglan Dragons
2 : 1 Afan Lido
31 Aug
Baglan Dragons
0 : 1 Caerphilly
28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1 Caerau Ely
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 1 Baglan Dragons
21 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1 Baglan Dragons
15 Aug
Llantwit Major
0 : 1 Baglan Dragons
31 Jul
Trethomas Bluebirds
0 : 0 Baglan Dragons
03 Apr
Cambrian United
2 : 0 Baglan Dragons
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Porthmadog 3
Denbigh 2
TBD -
Buckley -
Port Talbot 2
Seven Sisters 1
Afan Lido 3
Evans Williams 2
Pwllheli 1
Rhyl 3
Brickfield Rangers 3
NFA 1
Llantwit Major 2
Baglan Dragons 0
Cwmbran Town 5
Ynyshir Albions 4
Llanelli -
TBD -
TBD -
Haverfordwest -
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
Barry Town -
Caerphilly 1
Caldicot 3
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 7
Pentwynmawr Ath 0
Saltney Town 3
Gresford 7
Llanrug 4
Ruthin Town 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
TBD -
Taffs Well 2
Abertillery Excelsiors 1
Mold Alexandra -
TBD -
TBD -
TNS -
Newtown -
TBD -
TBD -
Caernarfon -
Llannefydd 5
Llanberis FC 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Sychdyn Utd 0
Llwydcoed 3
Lliswerry 1
Pill -
Treowen -
Pontypridd United -
TBD -
Rhayader 1
Cefn Cribwr 4
Carmarthen Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Trethomas Bluebirds -
Llanfair United 1
Kinmel Bay 2
TBD -
Colwyn Bay -
Goytre Utd 2
Ammanford Town 1
TBD -
Cambrian United -
Briton Ferry -
TBD -
TBD -
Penybont -
Bow Street 4
Cefn Albion 2
TBD -
Flint Town -
Holyhead 4
Forden Utd 0
TBD -
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
Cwmbach Royal Stars 3
Garden Village 4
Tredegar Town 1
Glynneath Town 3
Broughton Utd 2
Welshpool 1
Berriew FC 0
Trearddur Bay 3
Newport City -
TBD -
Penygraig Utd 3
Cwm Welfare 2
Blaenavon Blues 4
Canton 1
Pontyclun FC 4
Tata Steel 1
St. Asaph 0
Bangor 1876 6
TBD -
Guilsfield -
Holywell Town FC -
TBD -
Rhostyllen 5
Nefyn United 2
Dinas Powys 3
Afan United 1
Cardiff Draconians 4
Cwmbran Celtic 2
Abercarn United 1
Pure Swansea 2
TBD -
Trefelin -
Caersws FC 6
Hawarden Rangers 1
Dolgellau Athletic 8
Queens Park 3
Penydarren 0
Caerau Ely 5
Morriston Town 1
Clydach 0
Llandudno FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Flint Mountain -
Bala -
TBD -
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
1/32-finals
Porthmadog 1
Buckley 0
Port Talbot 3
Afan Lido 1
Rhyl 1
Brickfield Rangers 0
Llantwit Major 1
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 3
Haverfordwest 0
Aberystwyth 0
Barry Town 5
Caldicot 0
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 2
Gresford 9
Llanrug 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 5
Taffs Well 1
Mold Alexandra 1
TNS 2
Newtown 0
Caernarfon 3
Llannefydd 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Llwydcoed 2
Treowen 5
Pontypridd United 3
Cefn Cribwr 1
Carmarthen Town 5
Trethomas Bluebirds 1
Kinmel Bay 0
Colwyn Bay 5
Goytre Utd 0
Cambrian United 6
Briton Ferry 0
Penybont 5
Bow Street 0
Flint Town 3
Holyhead 2
Airbus UK Broughton FC 5
Garden Village 2
Glynneath Town 4
Broughton Utd 0
Trearddur Bay 6
Newport City 3
Penygraig Utd 1
Blaenavon Blues 4
Pontyclun FC 2
Bangor 1876 2
Guilsfield 1
Holywell Town FC 3
Rhostyllen 2
Dinas Powys 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Pure Swansea 1
Trefelin 6
Caersws FC 0
Dolgellau Athletic 1
Caerau Ely 3
Morriston Town 0
Llandudno FC 3
Flint Mountain 0
Bala 0
Connahs Q. 3
1/16-finals
Porthmadog 3
Port Talbot 2
Rhyl 3
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 0
Barry Town 6
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 0
Gresford 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
TNS 1
Caernarfon 4
Penrhyncoch 0
Treowen 1
Pontypridd United 2
Carmarthen Town 1
Colwyn Bay 3
Cambrian United 1
Penybont 3
Flint Town 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 0
Glynneath Town 2
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Blaenavon Blues 2
Bangor 1876 2
Holywell Town FC 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Trefelin 4
Dolgellau Athletic 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 2
Connahs Q. 1
1/8-finals
Porthmadog 1
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 4
Gresford 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Caernarfon 4
Pontypridd United 0
Colwyn Bay 3
Penybont 0
Flint Town 1
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Bangor 1876 2
Trefelin 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 1
Quarter-finals
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 1
Caernarfon 4
Colwyn Bay 1
Flint Town 3
Trearddur Bay 0
Bangor 1876 3
Caerau Ely 1
Semi-finals
Rhyl 1
Caernarfon 2
Flint Town 5
Bangor 1876 1
Final
Caernarfon 3
Flint Town 0
